The Palm Beach Post

Stock rally isn’t only because of Trump

President’s policies are one reason for market uptick, but there are other factors as well.

- Associated Press

The stock market is hitting new heights, and yes, excitement about President Donald Trump’s policies is part of the reason for it. But it’s not the only reason, analysts say.

Even if Trump had lost the election, many profession­al investors and analysts say they still would have expected stocks to rise, just perhaps not to the same degree. The Standard & Poor’s index has leapt 11.6 percent since Election Day, packing more gains into four months than it has had in five of the past six full years.

Here’s a look at some of the factors behind the strong run for stocks: ■ The Trump bump. The first reaction for markets to Trump’s win of the White House was confusion. Markets around the world tumbled on election night as the result became apparent. But they reversed course within hours. The reason: Investors are expecting the Trump White House to push through tax cuts for businesses and to loosen regulation­s on them.

Lower tax bills for companies should lead to an immediate rise in earnings, and stock prices tend to track profits over the long term. Easier regulation­s should also help businesses, the thinking goes, particular­ly big banks and other financials that have been under restrictio­ns imposed following the financial crisis. ■ The economy is getting better. Growth has been frustratin­gly slow since the end of the Great Recession, but the job market is picking up steam. The unemployme­nt rate in January was 4.8 percent, and economists see the economy as close to full employment.

I mp r o v e me n t wa s u n d e r - way before Trump entered the White House, but his election has spurred things along. Optimism among small businesses, for example, spiked higher after the election and is now at its highest level since 2004, according to surveys from the National Federation of Independen­t Business. ■ Higher confidence all around. Confidence has spread even to regular investors.

After years of hiding out in bonds and other safer investment­s, retail investors began creeping back into stock mutual funds and exchangetr­aded funds following the election. Investors plugged $20.7 billion into U.S. stock funds in November, the biggest month in nearly two years. They’ve followed that up with more purchases. That buying has helped to bid up stocks even more.

■ Corporate profits are getting better.

Earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 were nearly 6 percent higher last quarter than a year earlier, with nearly all of the companies reporting, according to S&P Global Market Intelligen­ce. It’s a sharp turnaround from a year ago, when low oil prices and other factors were pulling down profits for S&P 500 companies.

Profit growth was particular­ly strong for technology and financial companies. Microsoft’s earnings rose on stronger sales of business software, for example, and investment banks reported a strong quarter for their trading operations.

But just as each of these pillars has helped lift stocks in recent months, a weakening of any one of them could remove some support. If tax cuts come later than expected, or if they end up being only minor ones, it could mean a drop for stocks.

Critics also worry that stock prices have run up at a time when they were already looking overpriced relative to their earnings.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United States