Less than one year until Raul Castro’s retirement
MIAMI — A year from now, something i s expec ted to occur in Cuba that hasn’t happened in more than 40 years: a non-Castro will occupy the presidency.
The coming year will be one of defifinitions in Cuba. But right now there is only uncertainty — not only about how the transition will proceed but also about the future of Cuba’s relationship with the United States with President Donald Trump at the helm.
In 2013, Raul Castro told Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power, the parliament, that he planned to retire from the presidency of the Council of State and the Council of Ministers on Feb. 24, 2018. His heir apparent became Miguel Diaz-Canel, a party stalwart who at the time was promoted to first vice president of both councils.
When Castro retires as president, the Cuban Constitution also calls for him to relinquish his post of commander in chief of Cuba’s armed forces. A Cuba without a khaki- clad Castro commanding the Revolutionary Armed Forces is something most Cubans have never experienced.
Diaz-Canel’s ascension next Feb. 24 — a date that has long had resonance in Cuba history — is not assured, but most observers believe that a new National Assembly that will be seated then will rubber stamp him as Cuba’s next president and he will replace the 85-year-old Castro.
Even with a successor, Castro is still expected to retain considerable clout. He has said nothing about stepping down as chief of Cuba’s powerful Communist Party, and Cuba’s military leaders are solid Raulistas.
The power-behind-thethrone is not an unknown formula in Cuba. From 1959 to 1976, Osvaldo Dorticos formally served as president of the republic, even though the true power was wielded by the late Fidel Castro, who was then prime minister. From 1976, the posts associated with the presidenc y have been occupied fifirst by Fidel and then by Raul Castro, who took over on a provisional basis in 2006 when Fidel fell ill and then offifficially in 2008.
Diaz-Canel represents a break from the revolutionary old guard and the passing of the torch to a new generation of leaders. At age 56, he wasn’t even born when the revolution triumphed.
But there is also a school of thought that if Cuba’s relationship with the Trump administration goes badly, or if Trump yanks back most or all of the changes under the Obama administration, it will provide a reason for Castro to extend his tenure as president or at least to hang on to his post as head of Cuba’s Communist Party indefifinitely.
“A lot of people in Havana are saying that if Mr. Trump and company return to confrontational policies, backtracking on everything that was done by Obama or most of it, the situation in Cuba would be to say, ‘Let’s circle the wagons,’” said Domingo Amuchaste g u i , a f o r mer Cuban intelligence analyst who now lives in Miami.
In the middle and older generations there was the feeling that Raul should not step down until the new adminis- tration comes to terms with the normalization process or that if he steps down, he should stay as fifirst secretary of the party,” said Amuchastegui, who spent December in Cuba. “What I found every day I was there were conversations about what the new president (Trump) is going to do, will he be moving back or going forward on normalization.”
Cuba’s Communist Party generally convenes a Congress every fifive years, meaning it could be 2021 before a new party chieftain is named — although a change could occur at any time if Castro decides to retire from his party post.
At last year’s part y congress, Diaz-Canel wasn’t promoted to second secretary as some had antic ipated. Instead, Castro’s second in command remained 86-yearold Jose Ramon Machado Ventura. If he succeeds Castro as party chieftain, it wouldn’t do much to promote the idea that space is opening for new Cuban leaders or that, in Castro’s words, a “rejuvenation” is taking place.
“If Cubans believe that (Castro) and his aging cohort of 1960s revolutionaries remain the real power behind the throne, that would suffffocate and delegitimize the emerging, younger generation of leaders,” said Richard Feinberg, a professor of international political economy at the University of California, San Diego.