ESPN’s Lunardi picks Florida as a No. 4 seed
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi thinks center John Egbunu’s season-ending knee injury should be a factor for the NCAA Tournament selection committee when evaluating Florida basketball. Still, Lunardi projects the Gators as a No. 4 seed opening the tournament close to home in Orlando.
That could change, he added, based on the Gators’ performance in the SEC Tournament. Florida, the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament, opens up Friday night against either Vanderbilt or Texas A&M.
“Most seem to have them kind of split between 3 and 4 so I guess I might be in a small minority that has them as a 4, and I guess that’s in part because I’m trying to factor in a little bit of the current roster, which is shorthanded. And to me that’s worth half a seed line to a seed line,” Lunardi said Wednesday on a media teleconference. “... If they get to the (SEC) final and lose to Kentucky, I don’t think they’ll be worse than a 4. If they lose to somebody else, I suppose they could slide to 5, but overall their numbers and profile are still pretty strong.”
The Gators (24-7, 14-4 SEC) face an interesting opening game Friday night, whoever their opponent ends up being. Vanderbilt and Texas A&M play today.
T h e C o m m o d o r e s (17-14, 10-8) swept the regular-season series with Florida, including a 73-71 win in Nashville Saturday.
Meanwhile, Florida won its only meeting with Texas A&M (16-14, 8-10) this year 71-62. The Aggies have an imposing front court that could pose a stiffer challenge to a Gators team now without its best interior presence in Egbunu.
Lunardi, ESPN’s longtime NCAA Tournament bracket expert, thinks a loss in their opening game would likely drop the Gators to a No. 5 seed, but not definitively.
“Remember, no result happens in a vacuum. What are all the other 4s and 5s doing, right?” he said. “I’ve had years in doing an update on a Monday, all 4 No. 1 seeds lost in a given weekend so nothing changed. It’s kind of like if everybody stands still nobody loses the race.”
If the Gators keep their place in that race, as a top-4 seed, Lunardi thinks their odds of starting the NCAA Tournament in Orlando are a near certainty.
“Extremely good because there just aren’t a lot of teams for which Orlando would be the obvious landing spot, and they ’re the only t wo — Florida, Florida State — the only two teams on the board really that could be a 1-4 seed, which is what you need to kind of dictate your spot,” he said. “So I think they’re both going to be there as what I call pod leaders.”
Orlando is among eight host sites for the first and second rounds. The others are Buffalo, Milwaukee, Salt Lake City, Greenville, S.C., Indianapolis, Sacramento and Tulsa, Okla.
“If they slide to a 5, then all bets are off because then they can’t control where they go,” Lunardi said. “They would be linked to wherever the other 4s are, right? Because, you know, once you slot a 4 anywhere you’re automatically tying a 5, a 12 and a 13 to that same site. So you lose your ability to do Google Maps once you’re not a top 4 anymore.”
Overall, Lunardi expects five SEC teams will make the NCAA Tournament —Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas and Vanderbilt. The Commodores can thank their two wins over the Gators for that status.
“I think Vandy’s in. They could be in a situation where they have to go again to the First Four where they ’ve played other times, and there has certainly been a lot of SEC representation at the First Four over the years,” Lunardi said. “I think the five that are going (are) — obviously UK and Florida at the top, South Carolina, Arkansas and now Vandy — and short of a complete run by an underdog in dramatic fashion at the tournament, those are the five that we’re going to be talking about a week from now.”