How blue toilet water hurt a hurricane forecast
By August 2016, NOAA’s mighty Gulfstream jet had flown scores of hurricane missions, racing at 75 percent the speed of sound above icy cloud tops to gather vital clues on where a tropical cyclone was headed.
But when Hurricane Hermine threatened Florida, the aging aircraft was grounded by toilet water. Corrosion in the lavatory, possibly caused by the splish-splash of chemical blue water, sent NOAA’s only jet — nicknamed Gonzo — to the repair shop.
While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s fleet includes P-3 and C-130 hurricane hunters, it’s the G-IV’s high-flying muscle that improves tropical cyclone track forecasts by 15 percent on average per storm. Whereas G-IVs soar to 45,000 feet, the top altitude for the other two planes is about 30,000 feet.
“There are conditions within 30,000 and 45,000 feet that are important to measure,” said Capt. Michael Silah, commanding officer of NOAA Aircraft Operations Center. “It’s difficult not having a backup, and it certainly concerns me because the mission is so important. The G-IV could have been out for months. Fortunately for us, it was only a few weeks.”
Unfortunately for Florida, the grounding corresponded with the formation of the first hurricane to make landfall in the Sunshine State since 2005’s Hurricane Wilma. Category 1 Hurricane Hermine packed 80-mph winds when it hit the Big Bend in the early-morning hours of Sept. 2.
U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson pushed this year to require that NOAA get a backup jet, or have access to another aircraft if Gonzo is grounded again.
There are provisions requiring a backup jet in the
G-IV, a Gulfstream jet. It’s used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Built in 1994, but NOAA started using it in 1996. It’s nicknamed Gonzo after the Muppet character because of the unusual shape of a nosepiece that protects radar equipment.
It goes on hurricane missions to gather vital clues on where a tropical cyclone is headed.
It can travel at 75 percent the speed of sound and can soar to 45,000 feet. Instruments called dropwindsondes are tossed from the G-IV to measure air pressure, wind speed and direction, and humidity. The information is fed into equations that look at how the atmosphere changes with time. It has a Doppler radar antenna installed in the tail.
For NOAA to get a backup Gulfstream, it would cost
$90 million to $120 million. That would be the cost of the plane outfitted with similar equipment.