Cubs’ postseason rotation is anything but a lock
Barring one of the most precipitous final-week collapses in baseball history — something that before the great curse-breaking of Nov. 2, 2016, could not have been entirely ruled out — the Chicago Cubs, with a magic number of two, will clinch the National League Central division title sometime this week, perhaps as soon as Tuesday in St. Louis.
But as we look ahead to a likely Cubs-Washington Nationals matchup in the five-game NL Division Series, beginning Oct. 6 at Nationals Park, the Cubs are still seeking answers for one of the elemental questions regarding their postseason composition: the makeup of their playoff rotation. (It is a subject the Nationals, by comparison, have had cemented for weeks now, with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark locked in place, and most likely in that order.)
Each day brings a new data point for the Cubs to consider. On Sunday, it was lefty Jose Quintana throwing a three-hit shutout to beat the wild-card-contending Milwaukee Brewers. While Quintana, now 7-3 with a 3.50 ERA since being acquired from the crosstown White Sox at the trade deadline, always figured to be a part of the Cubs’ October rotation, he is now making a bid to get a start in one of the first two games.
On Monday, veteran lefty Jon Lester got the start against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, with his status having been called into question by virtue of a 5.91 ERA, an opponents’ OPS of .948 and 12 walks in 21 1/3 innings in four September starts since coming back from shoulder fatigue.
Once considered a lock to start one of the Cubs’ first two playoff games — he was their Game 1 starter in all three playoff series last fall — Lester, 33, might now be pitching just to hold onto one of four rotation spots.
“I really anticipate better,” Cubs Manager Joe Maddon told reporters Sunday regarding Lester’s upcoming start. “Physically he’s well. There’s nothing unwell about him. As long as he’s well and healthy, he’s going to be fine.”
The Cubs are refusing to discuss their plans for October until they clinch, a reasonable enough stance, but based on an every-fifth-day schedule, they appear to have right-hander Jake Arrieta lined up to start Game 1. Arrieta, 31, recently missed two weeks with a hamstring injury but returned last Thursday with a strong showing at Milwaukee.
If Lester fails to bounce back this week — or even if he does — the Cubs could turn to right-hander Kyle Hendricks in Game 2, since he has been their best pitcher (a 2.34 ERA and a .665 opponents’ OPS) in the second half of the season.
“Kyle Hendricks,” Maddon told reporters, “is pitching as well as anybody on this team, and among the best in the league.”
If that’s your Cubs postseason rotation — Arrieta, Hendricks, Quintana and Lester, not necessarily in that order — that means the odd man out could be veteran right-hander John Lackey, who owns three World Series rings with three different franchises.
Lackey, 38, owns the highest ERA (4.67) of any Cubs starter this season and his rate of 1.98 homers allowed per nine innings, including a pair surrendered Friday night in Milwaukee, is second-highest in the majors among qualified starters.
A year ago, the Cubs rolled into October with 103 regular-season wins and four starting pitchers — Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks and Lackey — all sporting ERAs between 2.13 and 3.35. But nothing has come as easy for them in 2017. At 87-68, they still have work to do just to clinch a spot, and once they do, handing the ball to one of their four chosen starters won’t bring the same sense of confidence it did in the fall of 2016.