Gators shouldn’t dismiss UAB
Blazers come to The Swamp having won five of past six games.
GAINESVILLE — These are trying times at Florida. Last week’s loss at South Carolina guaranteed the Gators just their second losing season since 1979. Injuries and suspensions and draining motivation are all evident on the field. Interim coach Randy Shannon finishes out the season as rumors of Chip Kelly, Dan Mullen, Scott Frost and others fly up and down University Avenue.
Everyone, it seems, is just ready for it to be over, and to get on to naming the next coach. There will be no bowl bid. The annual clash with Florida State will be a battle of teams with losing records. While the Gators showed some pride last week by pushing the Gamecocks into the fourth quarter, the end result was only another loss in what’s now a five-game skid.
What a contrast it will be then when resurrected and unheralded Alabama-Birmingham arrives at The Swamp today having won five of its past six games and armed with an offense putting up 32 points per contest. In their first season since 2014, the Blazers are bowl eligible at 7-3 and as capable as anyone of springing an upset on an SEC weekend heavy on nonconference mismatches.
Talk about divergent narratives: the Gators, hurtling toward rock bottom after firing former coach Jim McElwain at midseason, against the Blazers, whose football program was reconstituted after an outpouring of community support following its shutdown in 2014. UAB doesn’t have a signature victory or a schedule that will impress anybody. But the Blazers have the kind of offense Florida fans have been longing for, which could well carry the heavy underdogs to a shocker in The Swamp. Here’s why:
The Blazers will have the best player on the field: That would be UAB running back Spencer Brown, whose 1,177 rushing yards rank 15th nationally. Brown, who’s topped 100 yards six times this season, needs 410 yards in UAB’s final three games — including the bowl — to match the program’s single-season record held by Jordan Howard of the Chicago Bears. And did we mention Florida is 10th in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing an average of 178 yards per game? No. 28 in green and gold will get a lot of touches today, and the outcome may hinge on whether the Gators can stop him.
Florida can’t win in a shootout: Which is exactly what the Blazers will try to turn the game into. Brown is complemented by dualthreat quarterback A.J. Erdley, who’s rushed for 12 touchdowns this season. Coach Bill Clark’s offense is balanced and efficient, scoring on 90 percent of its red-zone trips and ranking eighth nationally in third-down conversions. The Blazers have a 1,000-yard rusher, a 1,000-yard passer, a 500-yard receiver, and have put up 30 or more points in six of 10 games this season. Meanwhile, Florida ranks 115th nationally in scoring offense, hasn’t totaled more than 20 in a game since September and is in no position to try to match UAB point for point.
Gators’ personnel losses have taken too large a toll: First, nine players were suspended because of a fraud racket involving misuse of debit cards. Then quarterback Luke Del Rio was lost for the season with a broken collarbone. Receivers, linebackers and offensive linemen have been banged up all season. Last week at South Carolina, center T.J. McCoy was lost for the season, and starting quarterback Malik Zaire suffered a knee injury. The backup today to Feleipe Franks, now the only healthy scholarship quarterback on the roster, is a wide receiver. The talent drain the Gators have suffered because of personnel losses would hamstring any program and, as much as anything, is a major reason for the team’s dysfunction on the field.
Missouri game is hard to shake: Thanks in large part to a bushel of South Carolina turnovers, Florida showed some spark by getting to within one score of the Gamecocks late. But the specter of that Missouri game the week before remains hard to shake. In that 45-15 trouncing, the Gators looked so lifeless, it was easy to wonder if they’d already quit on Shannon, who even in tough times at Miami had a reputation for building a rapport with players. Programs used to winning don’t tend to handle losing very well, and attitudes both on the home sideline and in the stands today could be less than ideal. It’s no coincidence the loss to Georgia Southern in Will Muschamp’s 4-8 season with the Gators happened on this same weekend in 2013.
Prediction: UAB 28, Florida 24.