Syria's in ruins, but Assad's hold on power looks firm
His nation is a smol
BEIRUT — dering ruin, much of it held by rival armed factions, domes
tic or foreign. Half the population is displaced, hundreds of thousands have died and much of the West regards him as a tyrant and human rights
abuser. But Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to have survived the war and is likely to hold onto power for the foreseeable future.
The sides in Syria’s civil war are preparing for the eighth round of U.N.-sponsored peace talks in Geneva intended to set a political transition to end the nearly 7-year-old conflict. Barring any surprises, no negotiated resolution is likely to lead to Assad’s ouster.
One reason is military. Assad’s forces have had the momentum on the ground the past year, backed by an overwhelming Russian air campaign and fighters from Iran and Hezbollah. Assad’s government now controls more than 50 percent of Syria.
Holding half the country normally wouldn’t be an opti- mistic sign, but that’s up from 19 percent earlier this year. His troops control Syria’s four largest cities, 10 of its 14 provincial capitals and its Medi- terranean coast. No force on the ground is capable of driv- ing Assad out at this stage.
On the diplomatic front, the top opposition supporters, the United States and its allies, long ago backed off demands that any deal involve Assad’s immediate removal. Now they are pushing for a plan for elections that could bring a new leader.
But Assad’s ally Russia now dominates the negotiating process, meaning there is little pressure on him to accept real elections — or any election before his term ends in 2021. A political solution under his terms would be to incorpo- rate opposition members into a national unity government under his leadership.
Assad’s opposition is in disarray. The top opposi- tion negotiator, Riyad Hijab, resigned Monday, complain
ing that foreign powers were carving up Syria and broker- ing side deals to “prolong the life of Bashar Assad’s regime.” The opposition is meeting later in the week in Saudi Arabia to come up with a uni- fied delegation and negotiating stance. Saudi Arabia has already signaled to the oppo- sition it has to come to terms with Assad’s survival.
Assad looks increasingly confident. On Monday, he traveled to the Russian city of Sochi for talks with Pres- ident Vladimir Putin. It was only Assad’s second trip outside his country since the conflict began in March 2011 — and the previous one was to Russia as well.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in late Octo- ber repeated Washington’s call for Assad to surrender control, insisting that “the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end.”
But turning that call into reality takes leverage that Washington doesn’t appear ready to use.
In a joint statement released earlier this month, U.S. Presi
dent Donald Trump and Russia’s Putin agreed there is no military solution to Syria’s war. They made vague comments about Assad’s “recent commitment to the Geneva process and constitutional reform and elections” as called for under a U.N. Security Council resolution.
There are few scenarios that could bring about Assad’s fall. One would be if Russia forces Assad to accept a political transition that ensures his departure from the presidency. But it is hard to imagine what incentive the U.S. could give Moscow to dump its ally.
Another scenario would be if the U.S. or other opposition backers reversed course and launched an all-out military drive against Assad.