Plenty still at stake for Gators, Seminoles
UF playing for pride; FSU hunting for bowl eligibility.
GAINESVILLE — While there may be zero national implications for the Florida-Florida State game on Saturday, plenty of eyes in Florida will be tuned in.
That’s because, regardless of their struggles, there are high-level recruit sin attendance who will choose bet ween these teams on signing day. That combined with the ill will that comes from these players knowing each other since high school always makes for an entertaining game.
The Gators last won against FSU in 2012. Since then, UF has been outscored 119-41.
But FSU was in the middle of a run with quarterback Jameis Winston for two of those games. The Seminoles are no longer theo ff ff ff ff ff ff ens ive juggernaut that they have been in the past. Combine that with a mediocre defense, and FSU has struggled this year just as much as Florida.
Both teams are 4-6 and coming off wins against inferior opponents. FSU is fifighting for bowl eligibility, thanks to rescheduling its game against Louisiana-Monroe to Dec. 2. Florida is just fifighting to avoid fifive losses in a row to its in-state rival.
Of ff ff ff ff ff fens ive comparison
The story on offense for both te ams has been extremely similar. After the loss of starting quarterback Deondre Francois, Florida State has just been unable to move the ball consistently.
The same can be said for Florida. The Gators still have Feleipe Franks starting — just as he did in the opener against Michigan — but Franks is really a thirdstring QB at this point, playing because of injuries to Luke Del Rio and Malik Zaire.
The biggest difference
between the offenses is that Florida has been able to run the ball better than FSU. The Seminoles have a little bit better passing game, but the loss of running back Dalvin Cook to the NFL has exposed signifificant limitations on the ground.
And the Gators need to commit to the run because they are pretty bad throwing the ball. Franks has played better the past two weeks, but that has really just raised his level of play from unplayable to potential backup QB.
F ranks has been outplayed by his FSU counterpart, James Blackman. While the former Glades Central star hasn’t set the world on fifire, he has a higher completion percentage, yards per attempt and a better TD/INT ratio. If you had to pick a QB in this game, it might make sense to pick Blackman.
Except then you might look at his home/away splits.
Blackman has played significantly better at home than on the road. This is to be expected from a true freshman, and doesn’t say anything about his overall ability. But it does suggest “road” James Blackman will make an appearance.
Advantage: Florida.
Defensive comparison
FSU started the year with what looked to be an elite level of talent and experience coming into the year (3.2 average years of experience with a 4.3 average star rating). However, that has not translated to an elite unit.
For as much criticism as FSU defensive back Derwin James has received from Gators fans, the defensive backs are not the problem with the Florida State defense. That unit has held up really well, ranking 14th in the country in yards per pass attempt.
The Seminoles have been OK against the run, but not terrible. The reason FSU is giving up more points is because the Seminoles have allowed a 39.1 percent thirddown conversion rate, good for 67th in the country.
Conversely, Florida has been worse against the run and the pass compared to FSU. The only reason Florida’s defense ranks anywhere close to FSU is because of a 33.3 percent third-down conversion rate. The Gators are playing a bend-but- don’tbreak defense, which is why the off ff ff ff ff ff en se has not had much of a fifield position advantage thus far.
FSU running backs Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick have a combined 29 catches out of the backfifield, which could be a problem for Florida. But FSU isn’t able to run the ball well, which should allow Florida to keep only two linebackers on the fifield for much of the game.
Again, this isa slight advantage, more because the limitations of theFSU off ff ff ff ff ff en se match well with what Florida needs to do to avoid mismatches in the Seminoles’ passing game.
Advantage: Florida State.
The pick
For perhaps the only time this season, the Florida off ff ff ff ff ff en se is better than its opponent. But that doesn’t guarantee a victory because of the Gators’ struggles on defense.
The game being in The Swamp gives Florida a better chance, particularly if running back Lamical Perine can get going.
FSU has played much worse on the road, and combined with the pride factor driving Florida’s players, it is likely that the Seminoles will get the Gators’ best effffffffffffort. If Florida State doesn’t bring its best effffffffffffort as well, Florida should be able to control the line of scrimmage, particularly on defense.
Advantage: Florida 20-14.