S. Fla. odds long for Amazon HQ2

Irish bookmaker PaddyPower.com pegs area’s chances at 20-1.

South Florida economic developers and politicians are fired up to make the first cut in the bidding war for Amazon’s second headquarters. But one bookie says the Miami MSA is an underdog.

Irish bookmaker PaddyPower. com pegs South Florida’s odds at 20-1. Columbus, Ohio; Dallas; Los Angeles; Nashville, Tennessee; Northern Virginia; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Indianapolis also are 20-1 long shots (meaning a $1 bet pays $20).

Boston is the favorite at 3-1, while PaddyPower puts odds at 7-2 for Austin, Texas, and Atlanta.

PaddyPower doesn’t explain its analytics. In an earlier round of oddsmaking, PaddyPower whiffed on a couple of picks, such as 10-1 odds for Rochester, New York, and 14-1 odds for Portland, Oregon. Rochester was eliminated in Amazon’s first cut, as was Portland, presumably because it’s so close to Amazon’s HQ1 in Seattle.

When PaddyPower began taking action on Amazon’s decision last year, Miami appeared at 12-1.

In its odds for other matters of conjecture, PaddyPower mirrors conventional wisdom. Its point spreads for Sunday’s NFL playoffs are identical to the Vegas odds, while PaddyPower’s picks for today’s UFC heavyweight title bout align with the Vegas consensus.

Amazon announced Thursday that it had thinned the herd of potential HQ2 sites from 238 applicants to 20 finalists.

Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties joined to submit one bid. They’ve offered five undisclosed sites, including one somewhere in Palm Beach County.

Considering that Amazon says its second headquarters ultimately could employ 50,000 people, Palm Beach County simply might not be big enough to accommodate the ecommerce giant’s office, said commercial real estate broker Neil Merin of NAI/Merin Hunter Codman in West Palm Beach.

“While I’m a big booster ... I think Palm Beach County is kind of like what Greenwich, Connecticut, is to New York,” Merin said. “We’re a nice suburban area. If you’re looking for transportation and people, you have to look to southern Broward or somewhere in Miami-Dade.”

Merin says the smart money is on the Washington, D.C., area — an assessment underscored by Amazon selecting three bids from Northern Virginia, Montgomery County, Maryland, and the capital among its 20 finalists.

“Amazon has gotten so big that lobbying efforts and monitoring of regulations will be very important,” Merin said.