The Palm Beach Post

» The U.S. economy remains strong amid anxiety,

Job market, housing, consumer confidence, spending are healthy.

- By Christophe­r Rugaber and Josh Boak

WASHINGTON — A wave of fear about inflation and higher interest rates has sent stock prices tumbling and raised concerns about corporate profits. Yet the rush of anxiety has obscured a fundamenta­l fact about the U.S. economy: It’s healthy.

Nearly nine years into the expansion that followed the Great Recession, the job market is strong. So is housing. Consumer confidence is solid, and manufactur­ing is rebounding. Households and businesses are spending freely. Personal debt has lightened since the financial crisis a decade ago. And major economies around the world are growing in tandem.

That very economic vigor, in fact, is a key reason why investors anticipate higher inflation and interest rates. Higher borrowing rates over time could undercut corporate earnings as well as stock prices. And some fear that the Federal Reserve might miscalcula­te and raise rates too high or too fast.

But no one is sure that will happen. And for now, the economy remains on firm footing, even with the prospect of somewhat higher inflation. The inflation concerns escalated after Friday’s monthly U.S. jobs report showed that average wages surged 2.9 percent in January from 12 months earlier — the sharpest year-over-year gain since the recession.

“What we’re seeing right now is an economy overall that is doing quite well and has strong fundamenta­ls,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “The economy remains on track to expand at a fairly solid pace, and along with that comes inflation.”

Here are some key reasons why the economy remains robust despite the jitters on Wall Street:

■ Jobs and wages are picking up: The job market is in its best shape in a decade or more. Businesses continue to hire at a pace that could drive the unemployme­nt rate — already at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent — even lower. Some economists think the jobless rate by year’s end could reach 3.5 percent, which would be the lowest level in a half-century.

With relatively few job seekers, many businesses are struggling to fill open positions. To attract and keep workers, many are finally offering higher pay, which helps explain why the January jobs report showed such a sharp pickup in wages. A separate measure of wages and salaries rose in the final three months of 2017 by the most in nearly three years.

■ Consumers and businesses spending more: With more solid job security and rising pay in some

industries, Americans as a whole are growing more optimistic about the economy’s direction. And their confidence has fueled consumer spending, the primary fuel of the U.S. economy. In the final three months of 2017, consumer spending rose at its fastest pace in a yearand-a-half.

Their willingnes­s to spend has led many to make big purchases, too: Sales of existing homes in 2017 reached their highest level in 11 years. The demand for housing helped accelerate home constructi­on last year to its fastest annual pace in a decade.

Businesses, too, are buying more computers, machinery and other equipment. Such purchases increased faster in the second half of last year than in any six-month period since 2014. Companies typically accelerate their investment­s when they foresee an improving economy.

“This not only points to stronger demand today but also says that firms are becoming increasing­ly confident about the future,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, an economist at BNP Paribas.

■ Household finances in decent shape: Americans generally haven’t been running up heavy debts. U.S. household debt equaled 95 percent of disposable income in the July-September quarter. That compares with about 120 percent right before the recession.

■ Still, their willingnes­s to spend has raised one concern: Savings have fallen. In December, the nation’s savings rate fell to its lowest level since 2005. Over the long run, a low savings rate can diminish the ability of households to withstand a financial shock.

■ Global economy: The U.S. economy now has something supporting it that it hasn’t had for nearly a decade: solid growth around the world. Roughly 120 countries experience­d faster growth in 2017.

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