At this point in season, what’s real, what’s not
AL is proceeding according to script; NL delightful chaos.
Memorial Day Weekend is the first traditional milepost in baseball, and so far the season is a Tale of Two Leagues:
The AL is as top-heavy as expected, and even though the Indians haven’t played well yet, the only real suspense is likely to be whether the Yankees or Red Sox win the AL East, and which other team claims the second wild-card spot.
The NL, on the other hand, is delightful chaos, with none of the favorites, the Nationals, Cubs, or Dodgers, in first place.
So what’s it all mean? Let’s try to break some of it down by deciphering what’s real and what’s not as it applies to the long season.
RED SOX BETTER THAN YANKEES: NOT REAL. While I do think it will be a compelling race, a couple of factors should allow the Yankees to prevail. Most significantly, the Yankees have plenty of payroll room under the luxury-tax threshold and a deep farm system to make deals at the trade deadline, as they did last year, while the Sox are maxed out with a $230 million payroll. The Boston bullpen, other than Craig Kimbrel, will spring leaks over the long summer.
METS OUT OF PLAYOFFS: REAL. The NL East is much better than expected, which will cost the Mets wins. Unless Steven Matz is turning a corner, having pitched better lately, there are too many questions about their pitching, including the bullpen, and age/ injuries will continue to be a problem for the offense.
ASTROS ROTATION MAKES THEM TEAM TO BEAT: REAL. Pitching usually wins in October, and as of Friday, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Charlie Morton had the top three ERAs in the league, at 1.08, 1.86, and 2.04 respectively.
BREWERS BEST RECORD IN NL: NOT REAL. They might have the best back-end bullpen in baseball, with the emergence of unhittable lefty Josh Hader to go with Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel, and it has been a difference-maker so far, but the lineup doesn’t wow you, even with newcomers Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, and the starting pitching is just OK. The Cubs will put the pieces together to win a third straight NL Central title.
BRAVES, PHILLIES AS CONTENDERS: REAL. They’re both ahead of their rebuild timetable, thriving with young talent, and while I still believe the Nationals will win the East, I’m convinced the Braves and Phillies will be factors all year, with at least one of them earning a wild-card. The Phillies have the better young pitching at the moment, the Braves the more dynamic offense, led by rookie stars Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna. The bad news for the Mets is both of them have money to spend and more talent coming from highly ranked farm systems.
DODGERS AN ALSORAN: NOT REAL. As it turned out, the Diamondbacks weren’t good enough to bury them when they had the chance, and now it’s only a matter of time before the Dodgers climb back to the top of the NL West. They survived Justin Turner’s absence; Clayton Kershaw is on his way back from biceps tendinitis; and L.A. still has the most talent of any team in the division.
MOOKIE BETTS AL MVP: REAL. I thought he should have won it in 2016 over Mike Trout, and Trout is having a spectacular season himself. But Betts has raised his game to another level, leading the league in most offensive categories, making the Red Sox offense formidable again after last year’s mysterious power outage. It could be a fascinating MVP race, as I expect Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa to make a push, but it looks like Betts’ year.
JACOB DEGROM NL ERA LEADER: REAL. He has raised his game to the highest level. Home runs were his downfall last year, as he gave up 28 of them, but he’s surrendered only two in 10 starts, pitching to a league-best 1.54 ERA. But can he outpitch the indefatigable Max Scherzer? The Nats ace actually has slightly better overall numbers, going for his third straight NL Cy Young.
J.D. MARTINEZ BETTER MOVE THAN GIANCARLO STANTON: REAL. GM Dave Dombrowski took heat in Boston all winter for not getting in on the Stanton deal, but his patience in waiting out Scott Boras and signing Martinez for five years, $110 million (with opt-outs) has proven crucial for the Red Sox. Martinez is a better pure hitter than Stanton. Meanwhile, Yanks are committed to 10 years with Stanton at $24 million per until age 38.