The great American center is where change will occur
Enough about the Freedom Caucus. Enough about the Democratic Socialists of America. They’re flamboyant players in our political debate, but they’re extremes: More politicians — and most Americans — occupy the expansive territory in between. That’s where the pivotal races in 2018 are being fought. And if Democrats take back the House, it’s where any legislation with a prayer of getting through Congress will be hammered out.
The story of the 2018 midterms isn’t Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in
New York’s 14th District, Ben Jealous in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Maryland and a leftist surge. Or, rather, that’s just one narrative, eclipsed by the less cinematic triumphs of less progressive Democrats. They’re by and large winning the primaries in the swing districts that might actually turn from red to blue. They’re the stars of their party’s mission to erect a barricade against the worst of Donald Trump.
Without doubt, Ocasio-Cortez’s ouster of Rep. Joe Crowley in the Democratic primary delivered an important message about entrenched politicians disconnected from their constituents. But when she gets to Congress, she won’t be replacing a Republican. She’ll be a new Democrat in a seat the party already holds and wasn’t going to lose. And she’ll almost surely be outnumbered by Democratic newcomers who waged more moderate campaigns.
“The real story out of these Democratic primaries isn’t left or right — it’s women,” Dave Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told me. Additionally, he said, he has been struck by the consequential role of candidates’ biographies, sometimes captured in compelling campaign videos that go viral.
The idea that the Democratic Party’s energy and future are concentrated on the left comes partly from the early jockeying in the 2020 presidential race. Potential candidates like Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand are wagering that progressives will have a significant say in who gets the Democratic nomination and advancing measures like Medicare for
All and the abolition of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. But it’s doubtful either of those reforms would garner majority support in a House controlled by Democrats, a crucial contingent of whom would be more like Conor Lamb than like Ocasio-Cortez.
“That type of agenda doesn’t sit well outside of the districts of the people who are advocating it,” said Rep. Tom Reed, a New York Republican who leads the Problem Solvers Caucus, a House group of 24 Republicans and 24 Democrats who meet weekly to identify areas of bipartisan agreement such as infrastructure investment and improvements to the Affordable Care Act.
“Nancy Pelosi and those who have to keep the caucus together are very clear on what they can and can’t do,” Third Way’s Lanae Erickson Hatalsky told me. “They’ll primarily be focused on their oversight role and stopping Trump.” Beyond that, she said, there might be an opportunity to pass bills that protect the Dreamers, mandate more transparency in campaign donations and encourage apprenticeship programs.
All of that sounds plenty enticing to me, because it’s better than the present. And stopping Trump? That sounds positively dreamy.