S. Florida could get a soaking for Labor Day
Tropical wave near Puerto Rico may bring heavy rain on weekend.
A pulse of tropical energy hit the Atlantic basin this week, with a possible hurricane brewing near Africa and a sloppy wave in the Caribbean threatening South Florida’s long holiday weekend.
National Hurricane Center forecasters predicted Thursday a swirl of thunderstorms hundreds GET THE APP
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of miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands would become Tropical Storm Florence before building to hurricane strength by Sunday.
to The affect system the U.S., is not but forecast if predictions the sixth named hold true storm it will of the be season and the third hurricane, following the shortlived July hurricanes Beryl and Chris.
Of more concern to National Weather Service meteorologists in Miami is a tropical wave near Puerto Rico that could bring heavy rain this weekend to areas from the Treasure Coast to the Keys. The hurricane center gave the distur- bance a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days as it moves into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
After Florence, the next name on the 2018 storm list is Gordon. Meteor o logist James Thomas said more than 2 inches of rain is possible through Monday from the wave but cautioned that fore- cast models differ on timing and location with one taking it through the Florida Strait and another moving it north “There’s of the a Strait. rather wet pattern setting up with the showers and storms coming really at any part of the day,” Thomas said. “I wouldn’t say there will be an overall washout Saturday and Sunday, but that could come Monday and Tuesday.” Rain chances increase from 40 percent today to 50 percent Saturday and 60 percent Monday through is at near-record levels for Wednesday. this time of year — similar to
Hazards, including a slight last year’s levels, and much risk for flooding and a mod- higher than observed during erate risk for rip currents, are the awful hurricane season expected Sunday through of 2005,” Masters wrote in Tuesday. A high risk for lighthis Cat 6 blog. ning is also in the forecast No one is predicting a for the same time period. repeat of 2005. The Climate
“If anything, it will be Prediction Center and ColMonday and Tuesday we orado State University are keep our eyes open for flood- both forecasting below nor- ing,” Thomas said. “Sun- mal hurricane activity this day the rain will be more year, but peak hurricane seahit or miss.” son lasts through mid-Oc
If the wave makes it into tober. the Gulf of Mexico, it will “Last year was all about have plenty of warm water September,” said CSU lead to “feast on,” said Jeff Mashurricane forecaster Phil ters, co-founder of Weather Klotzbach. “We don’t expect Underground. another 2017, but that’s not
At 86 degrees, the Gulf is to say we won’t get some- running 1.8 degrees warmer thing.” than normal. Helping push the wave
“The total amount of heat into South Florida is a strong energy in the Gulf right now clockwise-spinning Bermuda High. But a separate circulation center closer to the Azores is what’s forecast to send the potential tropical cyclone near the Cabo Verde Islands northwest into the Central Atlantic, said AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
Two more tropical waves that are forecast to leave the coast of Africa next week would likely follow the same path.
“The deeper the system gets, the more likely it will be drawn into that stronger high over the Azores,” Kottlowski said.
Forecasters will also be watching for the storm-inciting Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, in the coming weeks it makes its way into the Atlantic. The MJO is a global player in the trop- ics — an eastward moving grouping of clouds, showers and winds that traverses the planet and returns to its starting point in 30 to 60 days
Tropical activity this storm season has been normal in number of named storms and number of hurricanes. But Chris and Beryl maintained hurricane strength for just 3.25 days, when the average for this time in the season is six days. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy — a measure of the strength and longevity of a storm — is 17.5 this season when the normal is 28.7.
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