Gillum eyes success where moderates in his party have failed
Throughout the Democratic primary for governor, Andrew Gillum stood out for being willing to go one step farther to the left than the four other candidates on a number of high-profile issues.
In December,
Gillum released a video declaring “Donald Trump should be impeached, now.” In January, Gillum tweeted that he wants to legalize marijuana and proposed increasing the state’s corporate tax rate from 5.5 percent to 7.75 percent to generate an additional $1 billion for public education. In July, Gillum released a statement calling for “abolishment” of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.
Now, Gillum leads the charge to November for Florida Democrats as the party’s nominee for governor, raising big questions about whether voters in a purple state will embrace such a liberal candidate. While Republicans also have nominated an ideologue for governor in conservative congress-
man Ron DeSantis, Gillum’s nomination is more surprising and his electability more in question.
Gov. Rick Scott won his first race in 2010 despite going hard right in the GOP primary. But Democrats have never nominated someone as stridently liberal as Gillum to carry their banner in the governor’s race, said University of South Florida political science professor emeritus Susan MacManus.
“It represents a generational change that we’ve been seeing coming along in Florida for a long time,” MacManus said. “This younger generation wants change; they’re more liberal.”
Energizing the base
While some of Gillum’s more provocative positions may be supported by the party’s base, especially younger and minority voters, they could turn off independents and even some moderate and conservative Democrats.
Abolishing ICE, for example, is a fringe position — even within the Democratic Party — and Democratic candidates in swing seats have been hesitant to call for Trump’s impeachment. Legalizing marijuana is becoming more popular, but many Democratic candidates have been cautious on the issue, instead calling for decriminalization.
Having Gillum at the top of the ticket could put Democratic candidates in swing districts in the uncomfortable position of being tied to someone with more ardently liberal views.
Impeaching the president is now squarely on the statewide ballot, even if Gillum wouldn’t have any authority over the issue as governor.
“They’re counting on the anti-Trump” vote, MacManus said. “This is turning into a general election that’s 100 percent nationalized rather than just 50 percent.”
Republicans were quick after his primary victory to label Gillum a “radical.”
“Gillum is by far the most extreme far-left Democrat gubernatorial nominee in Florida history,” the Republican Governors Association declared in a news release. “Floridians can’t afford the costs of his radical, job-killing agenda.”
Trump joined in to tweet that Gillum is “a failed Socialist Mayor.”
And DeSantis appeared on Fox News to declare that Gillum is “much too liberal for Florida.”
DeSantis is a Trump acolyte who was endorsed by the president and is one of his staunchest defenders. His campaign dismissed the charge of racism as “absurd.”
“Ron DeSantis was obviously talking about Florida not making the wrong decision to embrace the socialist policies that Andrew Gillum espouses. To characterize it as anything else is absurd,” said DeSantis spokesman Stephen Lawson.
The early dust up shows just how charged the race is likely to be, following the same pattern as the 2016 presidential election.
And just like in 2016, Trump will play a starring role.
Where independents stand on Trump and how decisive that is in their midterm vote could be critical in the governor’s race. Will independent voters who aren’t as liberal as Gillum overlook some of his positions because they want to send a message to the president?
“The question becomes this independent group ... is that going to be enough?” MacManus said of the Trump factor.
Gillum and his supporters are quick to cast his progressive bona fides as an asset, saying Democrats have nominated moderates in the past with little success. They believe a more progressive candidate can energize voters who typically don’t turn out in midterm elections.
“Mayor Gillum’s running for Governor to build an economy that puts working people first, makes affordable health care a right for all people, and invests in our public schools so every kid can succeed,” said Gillum spokesman Geoff Burgan. “We know the DeSantis campaign is having a tough time getting away from their divisive mud-slinging and dog whistles, but we’d be happy to discuss the issues whenever they’re ready.”
Upending the status quo
The first African-American nominee for governor in Florida history, Gillum could be especially helpful in getting black voters to turnout in November, which would benefit Democrats up and down the ballot.
“We have nominated five pretty centrist Democrats, white Democrats, for the last 20 years and not one of them have won,” Gillum said in a recent interview, adding: “Black voters, brown voters, young voters, poor voters — I trust my chances at being able to reach those constituencies over anybody else running and if we’re going to win our nominee must move more of those voters to the polls.”
Motivating the base is always a big focus for both parties, but 2018 is turning into a base election like no other in Florida.
If Gillum is far left, DeSantis is hard right as a member of the House Freedom Caucus, the GOP congressional group whose members have embraced government shutdowns and other aggressive efforts to impose conservative priorities.
“Both parties nominated the ideological extremes of their parties,” MacManus noted.
It’s a much different race than usual for Florida. It even stands in contrast to the other big statewide race on the ballot.
Scott rode the tea party wave to office in 2010 with a sharply conservative message, but has moved to the middle in recent years, supporting gun control measures and even backing Medicaid expansion at one point. He’s making aggressive efforts to reach out to Hispanic voters as he tries to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, long known as a centrist.
Nelson doesn’t want to abolish ICE and has not called for impeaching Trump. His cautious approach to such issues is emblematic of how Democrats have campaigned statewide in Florida in the past.
Former U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, the Democrats’ 2016 nominee to take on Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, has been an outspoken advocate for bipartisanship and even contemplated running for governor on a unity ticket with former GOP congressman David Jolly.
But Gillum may be evidence that Democratic candidates are starting to more fully embrace their activist base, something Republicans did years ago.
Even Murphy touted Gillum’s aggressive policy positions as a strength.
“Andrew Gillum is charming, he’s charismatic, he’s strong on the issues, he’s not going to dance around what he believes in,” Murphy said.
Murphy joined a number of Florida’s Democratic members of Congress on a conference call with reporters after the primary. They all bashed DeSantis as ideologically extreme.
“It’s quite a contest,” Murphy said. “No doubt that the two campaigns are going to have a very different message here going forward and Floridians are going to have a clear choice.”
While Gillum and DeSantis both are likely to make efforts to appeal to the center, such a move will be along a tightrope, said University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith.
“If you’re a Gillum or DeSantis, you don’t want to be anticipating that strong core support in your base is certain to show up in November,” Smith said. “You have to make sure you can still energize that base.”
Also, a centrist shift by either contender could alienate those voters who put them over the top in the primary.
“You have to stick to your authenticity,” Smith said.
What is certain heading toward November, he added, is that “for voters, it’s a stark choice. I suspect a real negative, polarizing two months ahead.”