Syrian army massing to finish off the rebels

Margaret Coker, Hwaida Saad and Carlotta Gall BAGHDAD — On land, Syria’s government is mustering thousands of conscripts to bolster its depleted forces. At sea, a Russian naval flotilla is just offshore, ready to intervene with formidable firepower. In Idlib province, millions of civilians are dreading what comes next.

The adversaries in Syria’s long and merciless civil war are preparing for another brutal offensive, and this one may be the last.

The looming assault on Idlib province is the one the government in Damascus hopes will deliver the final military blow against the rebel fighters and their civilian supporters who rose up more than seven years ago demanding regime change.

Where Syria and its Russian and Iranian allies see a chance to crush the remaining opposition, Western leaders warn of a humanitarian calamity in Idlib, where an estimated 3 million civilians live.

Many of the noncombatants now in Idlib fled there from other parts of Syria, escaping the brutality of the government forces of President Bashar Assad. Tens of thousands were bused there as part of surrender deals with the government.

The impending government offensive against what are believed to be about 30,000 rebel fighters is a “perfect storm coming up in front of our eyes,” said Staffan de Mistura, United Nations special envoy to Syria.

Turkey, too, is expressing grave concern about an attack, worried it will bear the brunt of the humanitarian and security fallout.

The country has troops in Idlib, with the aim of separating Syrian and rebel forces, and its soldiers could be MORE DETAILS

U.N. officials say fighting could displace upward of 800,000 civilians from Idlib, yet there is no arrangement to allow safe passage to those who want to escape the fighting.

Walid al-Moallem, the Syrian deputy prime minister, told Russian television on Saturday that any Syrian citizen who wanted to return to government-controlled territory would be welcome.

But many Idlib families believe that leaving the province would lead to retribution and possible death given their affiliation with the rebels.

In another grim twist, some of the Syrian forces massing for the Idlib battle are former rebels, who laid down their arms against the government in reconciliation deals. caught in the middle of an attack. Turkey is hosting more than 3 million refugees from the civil war, and with an economic crisis and growing resentment against those Syrians already in the country, it does not want any more.

On a recent visit to Moscow, the country’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, called for more time for a Turkish plan to negotiate with the rebels in Idlib, including radical Islamist groups.

“A military solution there would be a disaster,” Cavusoglu said at a news conference, standing beside Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov.

“Attacking the whole of Idlib to eliminate some radical groups would mean causing the death of hundreds of thousands of people and making 3.5 million people leave their homes one more time,” Cavusoglu added.

Over the last two years, the Syrian army, with significant help from Russia and Iran, has regained control over large areas. With much of the country now back in its grip, the government can turn its attention to Idlib.

If the government were to retake the province, the last major rebel stronghold, the victory would essentially end large-scale, armed opposition within Syria. But it would hardly signal the end of the conflict or its miseries.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned of largescale catastrophe for civilians in Idlib. “The 3 million Syrians who have already been forced out of their homes and are now in Idlib will suffer from this aggression,” he wrote in a Twitter post on Friday. “Not good. The world is watching.”

In another post the same day, Pompeo called out his Russian counterpart for supporting the coming offensive. “Sergey Lavrov is defending Syrian and Russian assault on Idlib,” he wrote. “The Russians and Assad agreed not to permit this. The U.S. sees this as an escalation of an already dangerous conflict.”

The State Department on Friday warned in a statement that “the United States will respond to any chemical weapons attack perpetrated by the Syrian regime.”

Despite these international pleas, Syrian and Russian officials over the weekend were openly preparing to oust the formidable rebel forces in the province.