Trump’s Middle East policy risks even more ugliness
I greatly enjoyed the movie “Crazy Rich Asians” because, beyond the many laugh lines, it reminded me of an important point: Rich Asia has gotten really rich — not because it doesn’t have political, tribal, ethnic and religious differences like other regions, but because in more places on more days it learned to set those differences aside and focus on building the real foundations of sustainable wealth: education, trade, infrastructure, human capital and, in the most successful places, the rule of law. Most of Asia became prosperous not by discovering natural resources but by tapping its human resources — men and women — and giving them the tools to realize their potential.
It got me thinking that if someone were to do a similar movie about the Middle East it could be called “Crazy Poor Middle Easterners.” Because, with a few exceptions, this region has never been a bigger mess, had more people fighting over who owns which olive tree, had more cities turned to rubble by rival sects and missed its potential so vastly.
Now President Donald Trump says he wants to get out of the Middle East. But America’s real choices there are not stay or go, but be smart or dumb. And Trump has been dumb. He’s subcontracted order-making there to our allies Israel and Saudi Arabia and his pal Vladimir Putin. So now Trump is getting a lesson, as we speak, in what happens when America writes blank checks to allies and pals and abdicates real diplomatic leadership.
Iran has far overstretched itself, extending its malign military and religious influence into Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, where it has reportedly partnered with the Alawite/Shiite regime of Bashar Assad to engage in the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from regions of Syria to be replaced by Shiites. It’s an ugly, ugly business.
Israel’s prime minister has smartly built a relationship with Putin over the last three years to ensure that Israel’s air force can operate against Iran in Syria and that Russia keeps the Iranians away from the Israeli border. But even with that, and even though the Israelis have so penetrated Iranian units that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards land supply planes full of missiles in Damascus at 6 p.m. and Israel blows them up by 8 p.m. — the Iranians keep trying to turn Syria into a forward missile base against Israel.
And on Tuesday, Russia’s air force bombed Idlib province — the last major gathering center for Islamist anti-regime rebels in Syria.
Trump tweeted: “President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province. The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!”
Trump seems to have drawn a red line with his tweet, but Russia and
Iran are telling the U.S. and Israel: Without troops on the ground, you don’t have a vote. And what is Trump’s team doing in Israel? First it moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem — giving the rightwing Israeli government of Bibi Netanyahu a long-coveted prize — and asked for nothing in return.
Trump thinks he can just keep bludgeoning the Palestinians and never ask Israel to do anything hard and prevent things from getting any worse. Well, yes, they can get worse.