Another Middle East fissure

As if the Middle East didn’t have enough to contend with, a new regional fissure is developing that could lead to yet another war. The fuse that detonates this explosive is the Iraqi Kurds’ recent referendum for independence.

Following the first Gulf War in 1991, the U.S. enforced a nofly zone over the Iraqi Kurds’ enclave in northeastern Iraq to protect them from Saddam Hussein’s murderous regime.

This protection afforded the Iraqi Kurds a large dose of autonomy.

However, after the overthrow and capture of Saddam Hussein, the Kurd’s longstanding wish for an independent nation seemed, if not probable, at least feasible.

Significant hurdles remained, not least of which was stiff opposition from the U.S. and every major power in the region. In fact, all the major players supported a unified Iraq.

But for the first time in decades, independence appeared within reach.

Immediately following the overthrow of Hussein’s regime, Iraq’s Kurdish officials supported the idea of a unified but federal Iraq, even though public support for independence always haunted official pronouncements to the contrary.

But after a decade of war and Shia attempts to dominate the central government and marginalize the Kurds, the official position slowly changed.

Due to firming public sentiment for independence, Iraq’s Kurds held a referendum on September 25th on whether they should declare independence, despite stern warnings from the central government not to do so.

Unsurprisingly, the referendum passed with overwhelming support.

This could spell widespread trouble—again—that engulfs Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran. The Kurds comprise a minority in all four nations, but the area they inhabit is largely coterminous.

Therefore, they have historically yearned for a greater Kurdistan that spans the region.

For that reason, none of the aforementioned governments supported the referendum, fearing it could stir nationalist passions among their own Kurdish minorities.

The ruling powers in each country have always vehemently opposed Kurdish secession and independence from their respective countries, and have longstanding vows to violently crush any stirrings towards independence.

Turkey has been fighting its Kurdish population’s efforts for autonomy or independence, led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, for decades.

Unfortunately for regional tranquility, the referendum has energized Iran’s Kurdish population. Several cities in Iran’s Kurdish region held demonstrations that called for their own independence.

Arrests were made and the central government declared they would quash such rumblings by force if necessary; in their estimation, their Israeli and Saudi enemies would use Iranian or Iraqi Kurdish independence as a cudgel against them, so these movements must be nipped in the bud.

Meanwhile, in April Turkey launched airstrikes against Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq even though they were allied with the U.S. in its fight against ISIS. Turkey defended their attacks, saying the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds were linked to Turkey’s Kurdish separatists.

And recently Turkey moved tanks to the Turkish/Syrian border, threatening to close the border and the pipeline Kurd’s use to export their oil.

Tensions are clearly rising thanks to the Iraqi Kurd’s referendum. Astute diplomacy is needed to calm an already febrile atmosphere.

Otherwise, a war pitting the region’s Kurds against Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran would add accelerant to an already hot fire.

Adam Goldin is a Philadelphia-based economist with master’s degrees in both economics and international affairs. He resides in Chester County. Email: adam.goldin@ outlook.com