Can Syracuse get in with 15 losses?
The magic number is 14. Go through the history of the NCAA tournament, and 14 losses is the furthest the selection committee has ever gone in picking an atlarge team. It’s happened on 11 occasions since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and not once since 2011.
Of course, five(!) 14-loss teams earned at-large entries that year, which was the first season of the 68team era. The teams at the edge of that loss-littered field came in different shapes and sizes.
There was the 11th pick out of a monstrous Big East (Marquette), a pair of bruising Big Ten teams eager for a rock fight (Michigan State and Penn State), a Tennessee outfit that did great nonconference work but teetered down the stretch and a shaky Southern California bunch that bowed out quickly as Virginia Commonwealth’s first victim on its way to the Final Four.
Those were all power conference teams, but then again, who expects to see a Mountain West or Missouri Valley team with 14 losses go anywhere for the postseason but the CBI?
Given the realities of a regular-season schedule of roughly 30 games plus a conference tournament, it’s not surprising the committee hasn’t granted a team with 15 losses or more an at-large bid. All of the 14loss teams were at least two games over .500 (1991 Villanova and 2001 Georgia were 16-14 on Selection Sunday).
But this year just might be different. The edge of the field, while looking a little more formidable than it did a couple weeks back, isn’t particularly strong. That’s a byproduct of the 68-team era, but it’s advanced a step this season.
So is there some school out there that could end up with 15 losses and still make the NCAA tournament? Yup. There’s two serious contenders for the honor, and another team worth mentioning just because of how close to the edge of field others might think it is.
Syracuse (17-13)
The Orange’s path to losing 15 games involves dropping its regular-season finale at home against Georgia Tech and then making a deep run in the ACC tournament.
This isn’t particularly likely for two reasons.
One, Syracuse finds itself in contention for an NCAA bid largely because it is an awesome team in the Carrier Dome (well, aside from when it got skunked by St. John’s). The Orange is 15-3 in its own building, with victories over Duke, Florida State, Miami and Virginia. Syracuse also upended Monmouth and Wake Forest at home. The issue, though, is the Orange falls apart once it leaves the 315 area code. It is 2-10 in road and neutral settings, with one win coming at Clemson on Tyus Battle’s buzzerbeater and the other coming in overtime at an N.C. State team that had its coach fired before March even arrived. And unfortunately for Jim Boeheim’s team, it doesn’t get to play NCAA tournament games at home.
Nonetheless, Syracuse is a decent bet to win Saturday against Georgia Tech (which has road issues of its own) and avoid any chance of having 15 losses come Selection Sunday. Whether it can do anything next week in Brooklyn at the ACC tournament to reverse its shaky play outside the dome remains to be seen, but it’s probably the key to the Orange’s at-large hopes.
Vanderbilt (16-14)
Ignore the win-loss record for just a second, and the Commodores really don’t look like an outlandish at-large pick.
They’re 6-9 away from Memorial Gymnasium, which isn’t outstanding but not terrible compared to others near the edge of the field. They won at Florida and Arkansas, and also picked off Iowa State and South Carolina at home.
Bryce Drew’s bunch played the toughest nonconference schedule in the country and enter Thursday with a top-50 RPI and sit at No. 40 in the KenPom.com rankings.
Vanderbilt also wraps up with a return game from Florida on Saturday, which is another chance to poach a useful victory before next week’s SEC tournament. It was a handful for Kentucky on Wednesday night. The Commodores also lost at Missouri and have that glaringly middling record. Neither is easy to overlook. This much is certain: Vanderbilt will have at least 15 losses if it winds up in the at-large pool. But suppose it wins its next three, advancing to the semifinals of the SEC tournament. It might have a case, especially if no bid thieves emerge elsewhere.
Georgia Tech (16-13)
Like Syracuse, the Yellow Jackets can’t lose more than 14 games if they win their regular-season finale. But that would require Georgia Tech to win on the road, something they’ve done just twice (in an impressive showing at Virginia Commonwealth and, in another echo of Syracuse, at N.C. State). The Yellow Jackets also knocked off Florida State, North Carolina and Notre Dame, which might turn out to be the top three seeds in the ACC tournament. There’s no arguing with the top of their profile.
While the Yellow Jackets have played strong defense in their first season under Josh Pastner and Ben Lammers has emerged as one of the steadiest big men in the ACC, they’re still 2-9 outside of Atlanta and own a nonconference schedule ranked 259th in the country. No one should begrudge Georgia Tech that schedule — most assumed it would struggle a bunch — but it shouldn’t be rewarded for it, either.
Vanderbilt and Syracuse, despite their warts, have paths to losing 15 games and still finding themselves in the conversation for an atlarge bid later this month. It isn’t realistic to expect the same will be true for Georgia Tech. PORT ST. LUCIE, FLA. » For Lucas Duda and Zack Wheeler, just getting back on the field was a positive sign.
Part of the banged-up brigade for the New York Mets last year, both Duda and Wheeler said Wednesday that they’re making progress in their return from injuries. Duda resumed full baseball activities after being slowed by back and hip issues. After a morning workout, the power-hitting first baseman said he wasn’t sure when he’ll make his spring training debut in a game.
“I don’t want to say two days, three days, then it be four or five, but we’ll take it day-by-day,” Duda said.
Duda had been sidelined at the plate since last week, when he took too many swings in batting practice. He received cortisone shots in both hips, waited a couple of days for them to take effect and was restricted to fielding grounders. The 31-year-old Duda hit .229 with seven home runs last year while being limited to just 47 games because of a stress fracture in his back.
“Today (is) a normal day,” he said. “We took a little bit of time because we were afforded that luxury. We’ll get back at it today and see how it goes.”
“It’s nice to come to the field and get to play baseball. I’ve been doing defensive stuff. Today is the first day and we’ll see where I’m at,” he said. “I felt great (early in camp). It was just a spasm, so we treated it very gingerly and kind of took our time. There’s no issue.” Wheeler, who had Tommy John surgery two year ago, has been gradually working his way back up to speed in an attempt to return to the starting rotation. He is competing with fellow right-handers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, who pitched well last season as the rotation broke down, for the final starting spot.
“It felt good getting back out there facing batters. It’s another step closer,” New York Mets first baseman Lucas Duda fields a ground ball during a spring training baseball workout Tuesday in Port St. Lucie, Fla.
Wheeler said after a live batting practice that featured approximately 2025 pitches. “(I didn’t throw) 100 percent, but the feel was good, pitches were good. Still a little fine-tuning on the curveball, but that will come. I’m happy where I’m at right now.”
Manager Terry Collins said earlier in the week that the next step was for Wheeler to pitch in a simulated game with reliever Fernando Salas. The plan is to get Wheeler into a game after the Mets are off next Tuesday. Of the other four starters in the rotation — Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz — only opening day starter Syndergaard, was able to avoid surgery. Subsequently, the health of the Mets’ starting pitchers is a focal point as March begins. The rotation begins to take shape on Friday when Syndergaard pitches at home against Houston and deGrom goes Saturday. Harvey, returning from season-ending thoraric outlet syndrome surgery last July, pitches Sunday while Matz starts Monday.
NOTES
3B David Wright (shoulder impingement) is getting a second opinion. His status for opening day is in doubt. . INF Phillip Evans provided the Mets’ only run in a 6-1 loss to St. Louis in Jupiter by homering off LHP Austin Gomber in the ninth inning. Evans won the Eastern League batting title last year, hitting .330 at Double-A Binghamton . OF Michael Conforto hit two singles and raised his spring average to .538. Top prospect SS Amed Rosario also went 2 for 3 and is up to .364. . Mets pitchers gave up six runs, but only one was earned.