Early March Derby musings
With juvenile champ Good Magic in the field, Saturday’s Fountain of Youth was expected to bring some clarity to the Kentucky Derby picture. It didn’t turn out that way. Sent
off as the oddson favorite, Good Magic looked to be in good position at the quarter- pole but had little left for the stretch, as Promises Fulfilled (18-1) completed a gate-towire upset. Good
Magic finished third, 4 ½ lengths behind the winner. As usual, we’re left with one main question:
Is Good Magic not the horse he appeared to be last year, or was he just in need of a race? We may find out in the Blue Grass on April 7.
Prep action resumes next Saturday with the Tampa Bay Derby, Gotham Stakes and San
Felipe Stakes. Of the three, the San Felipe has had by far the strongest fields in recent years.
Graduates of the race since 2013 include California Chrome, Goldencents, Exaggerator,
Dortmund, Lord Nelson, Mor Spirit and Gormley.
Likely starters for this year’s San Felipe include Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie, both of whom rank near the top on most lists
of Derby contenders. Bolt d’Oro won a pair of Grade 1s at two, while McKinzie is undefeated in three starts.
Bolt d’Oro’s sire, the versatile Medaglia d’Oro, is a perennial top-ten stallion who has sired top-class dirt and turf horses of all ages. Most of his best runners, including 11 of 17 Grade 1 winners, have been females. Medaglia d’Oro, however, has one major hole in his resume: In nine crops of three-year- olds, he has yet to put a horse in the starting gate at the Kentucky Derby.
Bolt d’Oro may well become the first. Until he actually makes it through the qualifying process, though, his sire’s lack of influence on the Derby remains a factor worth considering.
McKinzie’s sire, 2007 Derby winner Street Sense, has had only one Derby starter from six crops of
three-year- olds: Ocho Ocho Ocho, who finished 14 th in 2015. Street Sense has been moderately successful at stud, although most of his best progeny have been miler types. Things could be looking up for the 14-year- old stallion, however. In McKinzie andAvery Island, Street
Sense has what appears to be two legitimate Derby contenders. Both colts were graded winners at two, and both have won preps this winter, McKinzie in the Sham Stakes and Avery Island in the Withers.
Other potential starters in the San Felipe, all of them by young stallions, include Ayacara
( Violence), Peace ( Violence), Aquila (Union Rags), Kanthaka (Jimmy Creed) and Lombo
(Graydar). Keep in mind that sons of first- or secondcrop sires have won the last three Kentucky Derbies.
Solomini, another major Derby contender, is being pointed to the Rebel Stakes on March 17. Solomini has
only a maiden win in four outings, though he hit the board in the other three, all Grade 1s. Unlike his two more accomplished rivals, Bolt d’Oro andMcKinzie, Solomini is by a proven sire of Kentucky Derby runners in Curlin, who is also the sire of Good Magic.
In five crops of three-yearolds, Curlin has produced a Derby starter every year: Palace Malice in 2013, followed in order by Ride On Curlin, Keen Ice, Exaggerator and Irish War Cry.
None of the five won, but Exaggerator was the runnerup behind Nyquist in 2016, with Ride On Curlin and Keen Ice both finishing seventh in their respective races. Palace Malice and Exaggerator went ontowinother classics in the 2013 Belmont and 2016 Preakness, respectively.