Justify dominates in Derby
In the last weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, pundits took to describing this year’s field as one of the deepest and most talented in years. Whether or not this is true is a matter for debate. One thing, though, is certain: Justify is by far the best of the bunch. The unbeaten colt, sent off as the 5-2 favorite, delivered on the promise shown in his three previous starts with a convincing and historic victory in the 144th edition of the race Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Good Magic (9-1), last year’s juvenile champion, finished second, 2½ lengths behind. Audible (7-1), the Florida Derby winner, closed well for the show spot, a head back of the runner-up. They were followed by Instilled Regard, the longest shot on the board at 85-1, and My Boy Jack, who had been 30-1 on the morning line but somehow went off as the 6-1 second choice. The running time over a sloppy, sealed track that had been drenched by three inches of rain was 2:04.20.
The race was won in the first quarter-mile, as jockey Mike Smith gunned Justify into an ideal stalking position a couple of paths to the outside of longshot pacesetter Promises Fulfilled (49-1). As a result, the son of Scat Daddy not only avoided the traffic difficulties that as usual plagued many Derby starters, but he also didn’t have to deal with the muddy kickback that f lew in the faces of his 19 rivals. When Justify went by Promises Fulfilled on the turn and wheeled into the stretch, he had clear sailing ahead of him. Good Magic tried gamely to get to the leader but was never a serious threat.
Justify’s victory was all the more impressive in that he managed to prevail after being prominent in a swift opening half-mile of 45.77 seconds. Naturally, he was unable to maintain that pace, requiring nearly 71/2 more seconds to cover the last half-mile (53.19) than the first. Even so, few horses made up ground in the stretch.
While this year’s result brought an end to one streak – it had been 136 years since a horse who hadn’t run at two won the Derby – it extended another: no Europe- based horse has ever won the race. Mendelssohn, winner of the UAE Derby by nearly 20 lengths, appeared to have the best chance in years of ending the drought. Unfortunately, the Irish hope had a brutal trip after being sideswiped a few strides out of the gate, then bounced around between horses as he tried to find running room. He was eased in the stretch.
With the victory, Justify became the sixth consecutive favorite to win the Derby, following Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist and Always Dreaming. Given all the bad things that can happen to a horse in a 20-horse field, this is a remarkable statistic. While California Chrome and American Pharoah went on to even greater glory, the Derby has been the career highlight for the other three (Always Dreaming is still in training). Which group will Justify fall into? Right now, it looks like this horse may be just getting started. It certainly doesn’t look like he’ll face much resistance in the Preakness.