The California Factor
Over the past three years, many of Saratoga’s biggest races have been won by horses shipping in from California. They include American Pharoah and Saratoga Grade 1 winners Arrogate, Drefong, Abel Tasman, West Coast, Songbird and American Gal. The first six horses all won Eclipse Awards. The first five were trained by Bob Baffert.
Seven of the top 11 horses in the latest NTRA poll – including the first four, led of course by Justify – are based in California. One has to hope that talented westerners will continue coming to Saratoga, and that some of them will compete in major races like the three below.
Travers – If Justify doesn’t run in the Travers, there’ll be a lot of disappointed people in Saratoga, including in the offices of the New York Racing Association and Saratoga Springs Chamber of Commerce. Although no official announcement has been made, the chances of Justify making the trip probably aren’t very high. It’s more likely that his connections will give him the summer off, then point to the Breeders’ Cup and Pegasus World Cup.
Without Justify, the Travers could still come up with a compelling field. Other possible starters include juvenile champ Good Magic, who should be well rested
from his worthy efforts in the Derby and Preakness; Florida Derby winner Audible, third in the Derby; and the promising pair of Gronkowski and Hofburg, the nearest finishers behind Justify in the Belmont. Needless to say, though, the 2018 Triple Crown winner would be sorely missed. Whitney – West Coast and Accelerate are the two best older males in training. Like Justify, both are based in California. So are other division contenders City of Light, Pavel and Dr. Dorr. Trainers Bob Baffert (West Coast, Dr. Dorr) and Doug O’Neill (Pavel) have a recent history of bringing horses to Saratoga – including West Coast and Pavel last summer – so there’s at least a chance they’ll show up for the $1.2 million Whitney. Any California horses who shipped in for the Whitney would probably face limited competition. This year’s graded-stakes winners from outside California have generally been inconsistent, among them Good Samaritan, Irish War Cry and Backyard Heaven. Impressive Met Mile winner Bee Jersey has won four straight but has never won beyond a mile. Last year’s classic winners Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing and Tapwrit are still in training, but none of the three has returned to the winner’s circle since their Triple Crown victories. Personal Ensign – A matchup here between Abel Tasman and Unique Bella, both of whom are also based in California, would be one of the highlights of the Saratoga meet. Unique Bella bested Abel Tasman the one time they met as three-yearolds in March. A shin injury sidelined Unique Bella over the spring and summer, during which time Abel Tasman put together a championship-caliber resume. Abel Tasman was a near unanimous choice for the Eclipse Award. Unique Bella, who lost only once in six starts, was second in the voting. Both fillies are coming off Grade 1 victories and appear poised for another standout season. Because their trainers, Bob Baffert and Jerry Hollendorfer, have had recent success at Saratoga, there’s at least a chance that Abel Tasman and Unique Bella will turn up at the Spa. It doesn’t hurt that the Personal Ensign’s $700,000 purse is considerably higher than that of the corresponding race at Del Mar, the $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch Handicap.