Searching For Value at the BC
FROM OFF THE PACE Searching for value at the BC With the Breeders’ Cup’s large fields of talented horses – many of them assigned uncharacteristically high odds – there are always plenty of apparent overlays on the morning line. The trick, of course, is to determine which ones have a legitimate chance to pay off. Here are eight entrants whose m/l odds may prove tempting for the adventurous bettor – in WPS wagers and exotics.
Classic (Roaring Lion, Thunder Snow) – Having won four Grade 1s by a combined 24½ lengths this year – all of them in California – morning-line favorite Accelerate (5-2) towers over the Classic field on paper. If he is unable to transfer his California form to Kentucky, though, or is impacted by starting from the no. 14 gate, anything might happen in what otherwise is a very wide-open race
Roaring Lion (20-1) has four Group 1 victories in 2018, although all were in Europe and on turf. European turf runners, however, have made their mark in the Classic in recent years (see Toast of New York, Declara-
tion of War, Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator). In addition, with four BC wins and a decade of experience in the U.S, trainer John Gosden knows a thing or two about bringing horses over for the event.
Thunder Snow (12-1) has been in the exacta in all five dirt starts this year, including a 5 ¾-length romp in the Dubai World Cup and a neck beat in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The Irish-bred colt sports a 3-2- 0 record in a halfdozen starts at the Classic distance.
Turf (Hi Happy) – At even-money, Enable is the biggest favorite at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. The once-beaten super filly, a back-to-back winner of the l’Arc de Triomphe, has won six straight group races at the Turf’s 1½-mile distance.
Hi Happy has little chance of beating Enable on Saturday, but if he goes off at anything close to his 20-1 m/l odds, he offers value in filling out exotics in what overall is not a very strong Turf field. The 6-year- old Argentine-bred couldn’t handle the Saratoga turf, but toss those two races and he has hit the board in his last six starts. Hi Happy has won two of three races at a mile and a half.
Distaff ( Vale Dori, La Force) – Favorites Monomoy Girl (2-1) and Abel Tasman (7-2) will probably take some beating here, although both are coming off losses and both drew undesirable posts (no. 11 and no. 2, respectively). Vale Dori (12-1) showed she may be primed for a big effort with her determined win in last month’s Zenyatta Stakes. The 6-year- old mare has six graded wins in the U.S.
The German-bred La Force (20-1) has finished second in three straight Grade 1s, twice to the formidable Unique Bella. The 4-year- old filly always finishes well, and her chances improve if the two favorites go at each other early.
Mile (Lightning Spear) – With ten Euro-based or -bred horses in the 14-horse field, at least a couple are bound to be overlooked. Lightning Spear (20-1) has competed in eight straight Group 1s, all of them at a mile. The 7-year- old horse has run well in all but one of five 2018 starts, winning one and placing in two others. The one poor showing occurred over the soft going he had not previously shown a liking for.
Sprint (Promises Fulfilled) – Three consecutive graded victories, including one over veteran toughies Whitmore and Limousine Liberal, still leave Promises Fulfilled (6-1) pegged as a relative longshot versus morning-line favorites Imperial Hint (9-5) and defending champ Roy H (5-2). Breaking from the no. 2 hole, the front-running Promises Fulfilled will have no choice but to go to the lead – which is where he prefers to be – and hope to stay there.
It won’t be easy. Not only will the son of Shackelford have to deal with Imperial Hint early, but he’ll also have to hold off Roy H, Whitmore and Limousine Liberal late in what may be the day’s most competitive trace.
Filly & Mare Sprint (Finley’sluckycharm)
– This 5-year- old mare hasn’t had a strong a year as she did in 2017, when she won four graded races. But she prevailed in the Grade 1 Madison Stakes at today’s distance in the spring and was an impressive winner of the Honorable Miss at Saratoga. Also in her favor is the fact that she has won six of seven starts at Churchill Downs and has run most of her best races off a layoff (her last start was on Aug. 25).