Rensselaer native at NTRA handicapping challenge
LaSalle alum Dave Nichols earned two seats at horse racing event in Las Vegas
TROY, N.Y. >> Rensselaer native Dave Nichols will be doubling down on his betting this weekend in Las Vegas as the LaSalle Institute alum will be participating for the fifth consecutive year at the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s National Handicapping Challenge.
Nichols earned not one, but two entries into the prestigious horse racing handicapping event and will be putting his skills up against 521 other strategists, including 145 other ‘dual- qualified’ competitors.
Nichols earned his initial entry at Saratoga Race Course during the Fourstardave Challenge in August and then earned his second entry at the NTRA/Belmont Super Qualifier.
“I play a decent amount online,” Dave Nichols said during a phone interview Thursday evening from Las Vegas at the Treasure Island Resort and Casino. “There are tournaments every weekend on-line where you can qualify, so that’s a good way to go about it because a lot of the live tournaments aren’t easy to get to from wherever you live.”
After graduating from LaSalle, Nichols went to college in Boston and eventually moved to Wayne, Pennsylvania, near Philadelphia, with his wife for the past 15 years.
“I played the NYRA tournaments, I play Monmouth, places that are fairly easy to get to,”
Nichols said. “Giving yourself as many opportunities as possible is always good, but I would say being able to play the on-line tournaments consistently, that’s probably the best way to go about it.”
There is no exaggeration that Nichols is a numbers guy. He has had a career as an actuary, measuring and managing risk and uncertainty along with handicapping at Saratoga Race Course since he was nineyears old.
It truly is in his blood. “That’s my Twitter handle @gamblingactuary,” Nichols said. “The gambling used to be the hobby and the actuary used to be a real job. This is the first year that I’ve kind of pursued handicapping as my primary job, which has been very difficult. You have to be ultra-successful to make a living of just doing this.
“I don’t know if this will be a long-term thing for me, but this year it has worked out and I think the results have shown that the more time you spend on it the better things will work out for you.”
Nichols said he had to take his shot at handicapping full-time.
“A lot of people I know kind of pursue their passion and I wasn’t doing that,” Nichols said. “I’m kind of a numbers nerd, so once I got my hands on a program I kind of became entranced by all that. I decided to go after my passion this year and hopefully it’ll lead to big things this weekend.”
On Friday and Saturday each handicapper will place mythical $2 win and $2 place bets on eight mandatory races at various racing venues. The players will then have an opportunity to place optional wagers on races at one of eight NHC tournament tracks, including Aqueduct.
The top 10 percent of successful handicappers will advance to the Sunday semifinals and top 10 will compete at the Final Table.
Nichols’ best finish was last year, 412th-place and out of the prize money.
“The first couple of years were a little bit of bad luck, the last couple years it’s probably been me panicking because I fell behind and not playing well,” Nichols said. “You get to Day 2 and you see where the leaders are and you’re like ‘Now I have to find a big long shot.’”
Nichols now has doubled his odds of cashing in, but that also means making 16 mandatory selections and 20 optional race selections each day.
“For two entries it kind of frees you up to have one entry that I would call like a ‘ bomb ticket’ where you just take some swings at some stretch horses that if they come in will really move you up the leaderboard,” Nichols said. “If you only have one entry you’ve got to be a little pickier, you don’t want to waste picks on horses that you honestly believe are a bit of a stretch.”
Besides having two entries, Nichols has the advantage of experience in the big room with the other 500-plus competitors.
The first time I came out here I thought I would be able to handle all of it pretty easily, but you get in this ballroom and there is just screen after screen everywhere and eight different tracks, it can take a while to adjust,” Nichols said.
Nichols has had success handicapping turf races, something he hopes he can continue to do this weekend and not stray away from his system.
“For some reason if I look back at my past NHC
experience I’ve find that I’ve played way too many dirt races and didn’t stick with my comfort zone as much as other people have,” Nichols said. “I get attached to certain horses and they are going off at a good price and I don’t want to miss out.
“I’ll probably do that tomorrow; focus a little more on grass races, hoping that it doesn’t rain all across the country. It seems to rain wherever I’m going. If there are good turf races out there I’ll probably focus a bit more on those for my optionals.”
Whether Nichols continues his dream of professional handicapping or goes back into the workforce crunching numbers as an actuary, this weekend he is focused on the numbers, the horses and their odds in Las Vegas.
“It’s been a crazy year where a lot of things have happened to go right for me and hopefully I can have one more weekend where things go really right for me.”
Follow Dave Nichols on Twitter @GamblingActuary
Listen to the NTRANHC live broadcast on the internet at www.stevebyk.com from 2 to 7:30 p.m. Friday through Sunday.