How many winners will there be this season?
We’re batting a thousand, baby! Five races , five different winners as the first month of the 2021 NASCAR season comes to a close, with Martin Truex Jr. breaking a 29-race winless streak Sunday at Phoenix Raceway.
Truex becomes the second Joe Gibbs driver to visit Victory Lane this season, joining young Christopher Bell. Those two, along with Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron and Kyle Larson, make up four of the five winners over the first month.
And then, of course, there’s our feelgood story from Week 1 — Michael McDowell. The 36-year-old won the Daytona 500, and punched that elusive playoff ticket right off the bat.
Or did he?
What are the chances we have 17 different winners qualify for the 16-driver playoff field?
“No chance, Zach!”
You sure?
First gear
First, a quick look-back. In 2014 ,we got seven different winners to start the season — that’s the most since this current playoff format began. We’ve gone at least five races (our current mark!) three different times (2014, 2017, 2019).
Jimmie Johnson became a repeat winner in the fifth race of the 2016 season. Kevin Harvick quickly ended any of hopes of chaos in 2018, winning three straight races after the Daytona 500, and Joey Logano won twice before the shutdown last season.
Second gear
So, how many different winners are we getting over the next 21 regular season races?
Well, guys like Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano still haven’t won. Despite his nearly year-long struggles now, Kyle Busch is also a threat to win every week. There’s 11 right there.
So, we need six more? How about Ryan Blaney, who has at least one win every season since 2017, and Alex Bowman, who has a win each of the past two seasons.
They give us 13, and Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon get us all the way to the Sweet 16.
Finally, throw in win from a wild-card — like Bubba Wallace or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. — and you’re there.
March Madness!
Third gear
So, what happens if we do get more than 16 winners? Well, then it becomes an oldfashioned points-battle between the onerace winners (if you’ve won more than one race, you’re in.)
Under the current format, the tie breaker(s) would go to whichever onerace winners have scored the most points throughout the regular season. Simple as that.
So, for example, if we get 17 winners, and McDowell is 23rd in the points after season finale at Daytona, and Wallace (assuming here he gets a win) is 19th, Wallace gets in.
Fourth gear
Oh yeah, there was a race this weekend. Let’s quickly get to that.
Truex Jr. continued JGR’s strong run at the start of the season, snapping a winless streak that dates back to last June.
Denny Hamlin finished third and is your current points leader, while Christopher Bell (ninth) continues to show that his roadcourse win was no fluke.
The Hendrick stable continues to impress as well, with three drivers (Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and William Byron) finishing in the top 10. Same can be said about Team Penske, which led 197 of 312 laps.
All Stewart-Haas drivers not named Kevin Harvick, meanwhile, continue to struggle.
Aric Almirola did managean 11th-place finish, but Cole Custer and Chase Briscoe have been non-factors through the first five weeks.
And on that happy note, we’re on to Atlanta.