Super Stock spoils the party
The stars appeared to be aligned for Concert Tour in last Saturday’s Arkansas Derby.
The son of Street Sense was unbeaten in three starts and was coming off his most impressive win yet, a 4¼-length wire job in the Rebel Stakes. Conditioned by Bob Baffert, winner of three of the last six Kentucky Derbies, Concert Tour would be facing just five opponents, only one of whom had been successful in a graded race. Odds-on at 4-5 on the morning line, Concert Tour was bet down to 1-9 in the early wagering, eventually settling at 1-5 when the gates opened.
Unfortunately, things didn’t work out for Concert Tour and his connections. First, unlike his first three races, Concert Tour was unable to make
the lead. Second, he was tugged along through a taxing :22.62 quarter-mile and :46.51 half by second choice Caddo River. And third, in the final furlong, the two favorites ended up in the sights of longshot Super Stock, who – unbeknownst to everyone except perhaps his trainer, Steve Asmussen – was ready to take a big step forward and win a G1 race. The winning margin was 2½ lengths, with Caddo River heading Concert Tour for the place.
The victory was only the second in eight starts for Super Stock; the first occurred last August in the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity at Lone Star Park. Super Stock showed some promise in subsequent starts at two, hitting the board in the Iroquois Stakes and Keeneland’s
Breeders’ Futurity. In his 2021 debut, he finished fourth in the Rebel, 6½ lengths behind Concert Tour.
Super Stock was one of many unlikely winners on this year’s road to the Kentucky Derby. The last dozen preps on the schedule included victories by Derby favorites Essential Quality and the now sidelined Life is Good. In the other ten preps, however, post-time favorites were all beaten. Only one favored horse finished as high as second. Some of these upsetters rewarded their backers handsomely. Double-digit victors included Bourbonic (72-1 in the Wood Memorial), Weyburn (46-1, Gotham), King Fury (18-1, Lexington), Helium (15-1, Tampa Bay Derby) and of course Super Stock, 12-1 in the Arkansas Derby.
It’s worth keeping in mind that the last ten horses to cross the finish
line first in the Kentucky Derby (including the DQed Maximum Security in 2019) were all victorious in their final preps. The last nine of these final preps, from 2012 through 2020, were G1s. This year there are three possible Derby starters coming off G1 wins: Known Agenda (Florida Derby), Rock Your World (Santa Anita Derby) and Super Stock.
Showdown at Oaklawn Park
The Kentucky Derby hogs most of the headlines at this time of year, but this afternoon’s faceoff between Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver is inarguably the most anticipated race of the year. The two champions collide in the 8½-furlong Apple Blossom Handicap, which had its purse booted to $1 million for the occasion. The field of six also includes a third standout in Letruska,
a 5-year-old mare who began her career in Mexico and could be dangerous in here if left alone too long on the lead.
Monomoy Girl, who earned a second championship last year after being away from the races for 18 months, is one of the sport’s most compelling stories of recent years. She looked sharp in her 2021 return in the Bayakoa Stakes and deserves top billing as today’s even-money favorite. Swiss Skydiver’s unplaced finish in last fall’s Distaff was a disappointing end to a remarkable year, but she looked formidable in her 2021 opener, winning the Beholder Mile by nearly three lengths.
Is the 4-year-old Daredevil filly now ready to challenge Monomoy Girl for leadership of the division, or is the 6-year-old two-time champion still too tough? Hard to say, but it should be fun finding out.