1 week and counting until budget deadline

In the historic budget impasse of 2017, Gov. Dannel P. Malloy has never had more power.

His promised veto of a mostly Republican budget could send the General Assembly back to square one. There is virtually no way the 151 House members and 36 senators can cobble together the twothirds needed to override the veto.

And with no re-election on his horizon, Malloy, whose February budget would have imposed a controversial $400 million in teacher pension payments onto the town and cities, doesn’t have anything left to lose.

“This makes the governor potentially stronger, but it depends on what he does,” said Tom Swan, a Democratic political operative who is executive director of the Connecticut Citizen Action Group. “He’s not afraid to take a tough stand.”

“Leadership has to be circumspect, at this point,” said Ronald Schurin, a professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. “This is the period when you make deals, but both parties have their ideological wings and their pragmatic wings. At the end of the day, the pragmatic wings will win out, because they depend heavily on state dollars.”

“The governor has a very strong hand,” said Brian Flaherty, senior vice president for public policy for the Connecticut Business & Industry Association. “The governor has the leverage and the will.”

So when the bipartisan budget talks resume in the Capitol on Tuesday, Malloy will be at the head of the table, holding the deck of cards, with the goal of crafting a final, two-year, $39 billion budget that addresses a $3.5 billion deficit and can win simple majorities in a fractured Legislature.

There’s a lot at stake in the last of the 50 states to approve a new spending package.

October looms

If they cannot beat the Oct. 1 deadline, the second quarter of the fiscal year will signal the release of the state’s major form of school aid, Education Cost Sharing. But without a new budget, Malloy’s executive order would terminate ECS funding for dozens of higher-income school districts.

The Republican bill, which passed the Senate 21-15 and the House 77-73, would provide for $2.7 billion in total municipal aid in the first year. Malloy’s executive order would pay for only $1.5 billion. So there will be growing pressure on lawmakers to cut a deal to allow some level of state aid to flow back home.

The Republican budget, passed with votes by three Democrats in the Senate and five in the House, would cut the University of Connecticut by at least $244 million over the biennium, compared to the $100 million reduction proposed by legislative Democrats and Malloy.

“I think we have very serious differences with Republicans about their numbers and their ability to do some of the things they’re trying to do,” Malloy said Friday after an hour-long meeting with Republican leaders. “I respect them. I want to work with them to get a budget, if it’s possible.”

He said the GOP document contains legal liabilities and “fundamental mistakes” that he expects to highlight in the days ahead.

‘Knee-capping UConn’

The governor doesn’t accept the premise that the budget battle has come down to Malloy versus the General Assembly.

“There’s common ground,” he said. “Listen, there are things in the Republican budget that I could absolutely support — some of the assistance for local government, for instance. On the other hand, violating tax laws I can’t agree with, violating labor laws I can’t agree with. Knee-capping UConn I can’t agree with. Sorry.”

Swan, the consumer and environmental advocate, said Republican lawmakers seem “shell-shocked” by the backlash against their package — including hundreds of people who rallied at the Capitol — that is bound to continue.

“In their euphoria last weekend, the Republicans failed to pivot and sell their budget, and it’s given Democrats a new sense of purpose,” Swan said. “Now after the pushback on all of these cuts, the question is whether the previous Democratic budget is adequate.”