The demise of permafrost and nature’s geophysical facts

Nationalistic hubris rides the high saddle. The Ministry of AltFacts minds the memory holes at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The clock strikes Thirteen. Ignorance commands the mind of the worst president in United States history, who, naturally, in his Looking Glass world, is measuring himself for a slot on Mt. Rushmore.

Could things get any worse? Well, yes. In fact, they already have, but no one in the House of AltFacts knows enough about nature’s geophysical facts to look, much less to see.

A few years ago, the quarter of the northern hemisphere that is underlain by permafrost, on balance, began feeding more carbon dioxide than oxygen into the atmosphere, according to reports from NASA. A decade or two ago, the prospect of such a reversal was being called a “tipping point,” one important indication that natural production of greenhouse gases has outstripped human emissions, rising on its own.

Back in those quaint days, the tipping point was usually said to be comfortably far in the future. The tipping points, however, are arriving before most of our scientists and other had thought — and in the midst of global surge of nationalism that is inhibiting nations’ ability to unite against it. Witness President AltFacts’ withdrawal from the Paris Accords.

In addition to increasing carbon dioxide from permafrost, (which isn’t permanent anymore), wildfires all over the world are pouring increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The oceans, which have been absorbing a large amount of carbon dioxide that has been pumped into the air, appear to be reaching their natural limits. As all of this portends the future of natural carbon dioxide overload that will kill much of the oceans’ life, swamp coastal cities, and change human, animal, and plant life beyond recognition, yet President AltFacts still insists that what we have here is a Chinese hoax. The lights are burning late in the Ministry of Truth.

In a study published in Nature Climate Change, scientists estimated that 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon were lost from Arctic permafrost regions during each winter from 2003 to 2017. Over the same span, an average of 1 billion metric tons of carbon were taken up by vegetation during summer growing seasons. This changes the region from being a net “sink” of carbon dioxide — where it is captured from the atmosphere and stored — into being a net source of emissions.

Permafrost is the carbonrich frozen soil that covers about one quarter of Northern Hemisphere land area; it encompasses vast stretches of Alaska, Canada, Siberia, and Greenland. Scientists have estimated the permafrost stores more carbon than has ever been released by humans via fossil fuel combustion. These frozen soils have kept carbon safely locked away for thousands of years, but rising temperatures are making them thaw and release those greenhouse gases.“These findings indicate that winter carbon dioxide loss may already be offsetting growing season carbon uptake, and these losses will increase as the climate continues to warm,” said Sue Natali, lead author of the study and a scientist at Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC). “Studies focused on individual sites have seen this transition, but until now we haven’t had a clear accounting of the winter carbon balance throughout the entire Arctic region.”

Natali and colleagues warned that winter carbon dioxide losses from permafrost regions could increase by 41 percent over the next century if humancaused greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace. If fossil fuel use is modestly reduced, winter carbon dioxide emissions would increase 17 percent compared with current emissions. Carbon emitted from permafrost has not been included in most models of future climates.

“The warmer it gets, the more carbon will be released into the atmosphere from the permafrost region, which will add to further warming,” said coauthor and WHRC scientist Brendan Rogers. “It’s concerning that our study, which used many more observations than ever before, indicates a much stronger Arctic carbon source in the winter. We may be witnessing a transition from an annual Arctic carbon sink to a carbon source, which is not good news.”

The tipping points, however, are arriving before most of our scientists and other had thought — and in the midst of global surge of nationalism that is inhibiting nations’ ability to unite against it.

For further reading

Natali, S.M. et al. (2019) Large Loss of CO2 in Winter Observed across the Northern Permafrost Region. Nature Climate Change, 9, 852–857.

Campbell, J.L. (2019) Arctic Loses Carbon as Winters Wane.” Nature Climate Change, 9, 806–807.

“Permafrost Becoming a Carbon Source Instead of a Sink.” NASA Earth Observatory, November 19, 2019. https://go.nasa.gov/34FMB6i