Science, metrics say HS football unlikely

The only way one down of high school football will be played in Connecticut this fall is if the COVID-19 metrics in states already playing the sport turn out to be superb.

Or if enough individual school districts and parochial schools follow the current guidance of the CIAC and stand in defiance of state Department of Public Health recommendations.

The first possibility is a long shot. The second is anarchy.

Otherwise, forget it. Football’s not happening.

This is what makes the CIAC Board of Control’s decision of Aug. 23 to eliminate the possibility of football in the spring so hamhanded. No one, especially the CIAC, knows what is going to happen in two weeks. And it’s making a call on something five months away? Unless there’s a crystal COVIDball hidden away at the CIAC headquarters, it’s stupid. It also comes off as anti-football at a time when the CIAC is doing everything in its power to appear the opposite.

But back to the present. On Point A: Some states are not off to a particularly rousing start. A glance at Friday morning’s top Google stories show a Utah

game canceled because of positive tests. An entire Indiana program is in quarantine after a player who competed in a game last weekend tested positive. And two Ohio opening games were canceled after positive tests.

On Point B: If school districts, under extraordinary pressure from parents/fans and given the go-ahead by local health officials, stand in defiance of the DPH and schedule games? I submit this would lead to chaos force and the dissolution of the CIAC and force the governor to use heavy-handed executive power to stop high-impact high school sports. Not to mention the fact that if players started contracting COVID-19, the very parents who are pushing so hard for football would be suing everyone from the Boards of Education to concession stand operators.

Make no mistake. The confluence of Coronavirus 2020, the CIAC (a private nonprofit that exists solely to serve its disparate members) and miscommunication/political jockeying have led to a tumultuous summer of ups, downs, fits, starts and cruel toying with thousands of teenagers’ emotions. Who knew the only thing messier than democracy was high school football scheduling?

We had a CIAC football committee recommend the sport be moved to next spring only to have the CIAC governing body two days later rule it should be played in the fall. Only to have the DPH, a few hours later, recommend football either be played next spring or canceled.

Once that debacle was mopped up through clarifications, spins and counter-spins, we had Hartford Public coach Harry Bellucci, head of the CIAC football committee, saying Wednesday in advance of a CIAC announcement, “As of now, football is a full go. We are playing fall football until someone tells us we can’t.”

Unfortunately, a lot of folks didn’t see Bellucci also said the existing plan was in place. So there were immediate huzzahs around the state only to be dashed — again — by the reality that the football season is not a full go. Yes, players can work out in small cohorts and enjoy the live-for-today experiences that CIAC Executive Director Glenn Lungarini has stressed. Yet we also need to wait until two weeks after schools are in session to properly gather and vet COVID metrics before a final decision on games.

I’m big on trusting the science. Big on metrics. Yet unlike a lot of folks on polar opposites of this fight, I’m trying not to use the numbers to fit my

agenda. I’m not a 100 or 0 guy on all fall sports. In favor of some, open to others, no on football. Made it clear several times. Also made it clear the most important numbers aren’t the projected ones, but the ones after kids are back in class. That’s what is happening. Good.

The cases per 100,000 are important, yet when it comes to the DPH so are a number of other factors. Lungarini, for instance, has continued to hammer away at inconsistent guidance from the ReOpen CT Committee, with DPH representation, for CIAC athletics vs. youth sports. Lungarini has conveniently stayed away from the out-of-state hockey players who tested positive after playing a youth tournament in Connecticut but yes, the overall summer evidence is good. And that helps with the DPH recommendations to go ahead with cross country, swimming, field hockey and soccer.

In lieu of an executive order, the state’s ReOpen CT could further define its recommendations in its sports and fitness rules. But read this carefully: There hasn’t been any 11-vs.-11 tackle football to directly compare it to high school football. Along with wrestling, football is the highest-risk sport. Argue all you want about whether summer basketball is fairly close in comparison. I’m telling you the CIAC isn’t changing the DPH’s mind on this point. The state has its own federal and medical organizations to consult on football. Heck, Paul Mounds, Gov. Lamont’s chief of staff, played football at Trinity, just in case someone wants to discuss battles in the trenches. They’re set.

That’s why I see the only conceivable way the DPH could change its recommendation would be if the overall numbers in Connecticut schools are terrific in conjunction with serious information from other states that football can be played with great COVID-19 numbers. This may mean only a 5 or 10 percent chance of the DPH giving a go-ahead to football, but if the DPH is being fair and objective it must consider every conceivable metric available. That’s why I’ve gone from 100 percent to 90 percent against football in the fall. Maybe sneak in six weeks. That small crack should be left open until late September.

The CIAC has choices to make. If the DPH insists on no football, the CIAC can say that while it disagrees, it honors the recommendation and stresses to its members it should follow. Or the CIAC can leave it openended and advise individual school districts they can make their own choices.

If it does the former, the CIAC — without actually making the hard decision — can claim to have done everything in its power to give football players a safe season. That it fought the good fight until the clock ran out and now let’s take a look at 7 vs. 7.

If it does the latter, the CIAC will intentionally spark revolution. This isn’t Texas, but there are footballcrazy towns in CT. There are parochial schools not beholden to districts. There are Fairfield County towns where parents are well-organized, well-heeled and well-connected. You think Gov. Lamont doesn’t know that? Those folks are going to push hard. They already have.

Are superintendents, Boards of Education and local health boards strong enough to hold on to their convictions and hold up against enormous town pressure? The better question is why would any responsible leadership put those people in such a terrible spot?

From there, what happens? Do schools try to play? Who’s going to cover the liability of illness, injury or even death? Would schools try to form their own organization? And would the CIAC toss them out? Mayhem, etc.

The best metrics must be followed by the coolest heads and most reasonable minds. If 11-vs.-11 football is called off, can high-testosterone purists stomach 7 vs. 7? No, it’s not fair to 250-pound linemen. Yes, that part sucks. So do we make sure no one competes if all can’t compete? How fair is that?

Can 7 vs. 7, a non-sanctioned CIAC pursuit, be supplemented with minicombines for linemen to get looked at by college coaches? Can virtual skills competitions, such as bench-press, football throw, etc., become a source of enthusiasm and interest? Yes. The argument isn’t to put 7 vs. 7 ahead of full-team tackle. It’s an alternative after 11 vs. 11 has been taken off the table. And a successful 7 vs. 7 could help with keeping a few iffy winter sports from cancellation.

Which brings us to spring football. Massachusetts is instituting a Fall II season for football planned for Feb. 22 to April 25. Is it perfect? Of course not. Nothing is. COVID-19 could knock it out, just as it could knock out any season. Baseball will lose a handful of games, track a few meets, and they already lost last spring. I get it.

“Everything will be reassessed as we move forward,” Lungarini said last week. “But with all the people we talk to and look at the scientific stats, the outlook is nowhere near as positive as right now.”

Yes, yes, we know. Everything is fluid. So don’t freeze out your possibilities until you must.