Main issue in races for state House? The U.S. presidency

Among its many effects, the coronavirus pandemic not only curtailed the annual legislative session, it left this year’s 151 state House of Representatives campaigns with very few issues.

There is no controversy over trucks-only highway tolls, which Gov. Ned Lamont dropped like a radioactive potato in February, after Democrats showed no interest in an election year.

When the Capitol was abandoned on March 12 and the legislative session ended in May with no further action, it meant that the second year of the twoyear budget adopted in 2019 would go into effect on July 1 with few changes. So second-guessing the budget, a traditional Republican theme every two years for decades, is practically off the table.

And the issue of mandatory inoculations for school kids, which drew thousands of angry parents to the Capitol complex in opposition to the proposal early this year, has taken a back seat to hopes for a vaccine in a surging

pandemic that has killed more than 4,600 in Connecticut and 230,000 across the United States.

In a blue state that is expected to vote overwhelmingly for Democrat Joe Biden, direct references to President Donald Trump are few and far between among Republican incumbents and candidates.

Democrats, naturally, want to tie Trump into their campaigns to expand their current 91-60 majority in a blue wave similar to the 2018 mid-term elections. Two years ago, their narrow 79-72 majority bulged to 92-59, the highest margin since the 2012 election. (The GOP picked up a seat in a 2019 special election.)

House leaders on both sides of the aisle said they don’t anticipate a major shift from the current party makeup. A blue wave could bring the Democrats a two-thirds super-majority of 101 seats.

‘A Trumpian kind of tactic’

Statewide, the main unifying issue Republicans are using is opposition to a controversial police-accountability bill that was passed in a July special session and signed by Gov. Ned Lamont. Many GOP candidates are describing the law as “defunding police,” which was not included in the legislation.

The law, drafted over two months, was prompted by the national Black Lives Matter movement and protests after the May killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police, who in a grim video, are seen choking the Black man to death. In Connecticut, protesters swarmed on interstate

highways and held rallies throughout the state for weeks.

Republican backlash against the legislation is particularly noticeable in the Ansonia and Derby district where first-term Rep. Kara Rochelle, the lone Democratic member of the General Assembly in the Naugatuck Valley, is being challenged by Myra Rivers, a 20-year-old college undergraduate and U.S. Army Reservist whose twin billboards on Route 34 in Derby include a primitive “wanted” poster of Rochelle, tying her to the police bill.

“That’s a Trumpian kind of tactic,” said Ronald Schurin, a University of Connecticut political science professor. “Whether it is a help, we’ll see.”

Key enclaves of Trump supporters lie in the Naugatuck Valley, parts of Litchfield County and in small eastern Connecticut towns.

“In various parts of Connecticut, the key issue is the presidential race, and Democrats are trying hard to tie their opponents to Trump,” Schurin said on Friday. “In some cases it’s valid and in others a bit of a stretch, but they want to use it to increase their majority. You don’t hear much about tolls anymore. But the national race has taken the oxygen out of the political air.”

Democrats highlighting Trump

Each House district represents about 23,000 people and each campaign has local dynamics.

“Some Republican incumbents have high levels of personal support and they’ll survive opposition to the top of the ticket,” Schurin said. “Democrats hope for a lot of straight-ticket voting. Gov.

Lamont, unlike [former] Governor [Dannel] Malloy is not a drag on the Democratic ticket. He seems to have done well.”

House Majority Leader Matt Ritter, D-Hartford, who is expected to become the next speaker of the House, said Trump is a legitimate issue for Republicans because the GOP, like Democrats, foster candidates from local town committees and municipal elected office, to state capitals, Congress and the presidency.

“We have definitely seen in some districts that Republican candidates are trying to do everything they can to avoid conversations about Donald Trump, but overall, our strategy is that good candidates have great connections to the towns they’re running to represent,” Ritter said, adding that the police accountability bill, banning choke holds and creating higher standards in training and behavior, is a target for misconceptions and misinformation.

“We truly have a moment in this country when we believe we have to do something differently,” Ritter said. “In Connecticut it’s more rare but there are some officers that are literally killing people.” Ritter anticipates some gains on Tuesday, but is neither predicting nor anticipating major gains.

He rejects charges that the police bill didn’t include extensive consultations with police chiefs, unions and Republicans. “I don’t think rank and file officers understand what has happened,” Ritter said.

He also thinks there will be “reasonable” modifications to the reform law during the 2021 legislative session. “If we’re requiring higher expectations from departments,

then we should pay for the training, the [body and dashboard] cameras and [video] storage,” Ritter said.

Republicans don’t see another ‘blue wave’

Deputy House Minority Leader Vincent Candelora, R-North Branford, said party polling data shows that the mid-term blue wave is less likely on Tuesday, and that criticism of the police accountability bill resonates with voters.

“I don’t think it is going to be such a bad night for Republicans,” Candelora said in a phone interview. “Either side can win a few seats or lose a few.”

Among Republicans leaving vacancies are veterans Rep. Chris Davis of Ellington, ranking member of the Finance Committee; Rep. Arthur O’Neill of Southbury, the longest-serving House member, first elected in 1987; Rep. Richard Smith of New Fairfield; Gail Lavielle of Wilton; moderate Livvy Floren of Greenwich; and Rep. John Frey of Ridgefield, a Republican National Committee member who served 22 years.

Candelora is likely to become the caucus leader next January, following the departure of current Minority Leader Themis Klarides of Derby, who may run for governor in 2022.

With the pandemic prohibiting most in-person meetings and all but two short, special sessions, “Sometimes you’re feeling like you’re on an island communicating with a cup and string,” he said, adding that most candidates and incumbents are combining traditional door knocking with digital presences.