The Register Citizen (Torrington, CT)
Sports simulator says press pause on Jets going 0-16
NEW YORK — First, the good news for some frustrated New York Jets fans: They might not have to endure the embarrassment of a winless season. Now, the not-so-good news: No 0-16 finish could mean they miss out on being No. 1 in the NFL draft in April.
With Adam Gase’s group skidding at 0-9 — a franchise-worst start — and coming off their bye-week break, all eyes will be on whether the Jets become the third team in NFL history to lose all 16 games. For those banking on that — and maybe even hoping because of the guaranteed draft position — well, press the pause button.
Wolverine Studios, a PC sports video game developer that produced a simulation of the NCAA Tournament in March, is the creator of a series of games that allow users to manage and develop their own programs and teams from the college to the professional level in several sports. They went to work last weekend and ran 200 analytics-and data-driven simulations of the Jets’ final seven games for The Associated Press.
The result: New York has about a 60% chance of winning one of them. And the matchup with the best chances of producing that lone victory? The season finale at AFC East-rival New England.
“First, we took our simulation engine, ‘Draft Day Sports: Pro Football 2021,’ and used a communitycreated mod as a starting point,” Gary Gorski, owner and founder of Wolverine Studios, explained in an email. “From there, we modified it so that we had players on the proper teams, adjusted some players based on their performance this season and tried to make everything just right as to simulate the final seven weeks of the season to see how the Jets would fare.”
The simulations showed the Jets have a less than 1% chance of finishing 3-13, 23% of going 2-14 and 36% of being 1-15 — and matching the 1996 team for the worst record in franchise history. As for their chances of joining the 2017 Cleveland Browns and 2008 Detroit Lions as the NFL’s only 0-16 squads, they’re at just over 40%.
Wolverine Studios, whose football game isn’t licensed by or affiliated with the NFL, prevented injuries from occurring in the simulations because it didn’t want outcomes to be determined by that highly unpredictable variable.
For those focused on New York pushing the reset button next season and getting the No. 1 overall pick — likely Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence — all might not be lost even with a win. In 99% of the simulations, the Jets finished either with the NFL’s worst record or tied for it. Jacksonville is currently New York’s closest competition at 1-8.