Data: COVID hospitalization flat, but up for younger people

“The greater Northeast in general, I’m afraid, is in many ways leading the country in terms of infections.” Gov. Ned Lamont

A review of data in Connecticut suggests that while the COVID hospitalization rate is flat, the number of middle-aged patients is increasing.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sampling data, tracking COVID hospitalization rate by age range, shows a particular increase in hospitalizations among people in their 40s. That data, collected by Yale New Haven Medical School and maintained by the CDC, samples hospitalizations in New Haven and Middlesex counties.

There were 22 more COVID hospitalizations statewide recorded on Thursday, increasing the total to 434. There were also 1,489 new infections with a daily positivity rate of 3.88 percent reported Thursday. There were 10 more deaths recorded, bringing the state’s official death toll to 7,862.

“The greater Northeast in general, I’m afraid, is in many ways leading the country in terms of infections,” Gov. Ned Lamont said Thursday.

Lamont pointed to data showing younger adults — those between the ages of 20 to 39 — are beginning to “creep up” in infections.

“That’s where the infections are taking place — it’s a younger demographic,” the governor said. “Less complications, but perhaps a little less caution as well.”

Lamont said that while the positivity rate is an important metric, hospitalizations continue to be a key measure for weighing restrictions to stem the spread of the virus.

Hospitalizations are “coming down,” Kathleen Silard, CEO of Stamford Health, said during Lamont’s COVID press briefing.

Though “the median age for COVID-19 patients has come down,” attributing that shift, in part to vaccines.

The CDC data shows the hospitalization rate in Connecticut dipped to a low of 9.6 for every 100,000 state residents at the end of February, but has risen steadily each week to a rate of 13.6 as of March 13.

The sampling shows the direction of the trend, but may not accurately depict the state’s overall numbers. The sampling may be skewed because the hospitals in New Haven and Middlesex counties may reflect specific circumstances that do not apply for the entire state.

The steepest increase in the sample has been among people between the ages of 40 and 49. There had been 16.5 people that age in the hospital for every 100,000 Connecticut residents, increasing over the three weeks ending March 13 to a rate of 44.1, the CDC data shows.

Toward the end of February, there were 17.2 for every 100,000 Connecticut residents aged between 30 and 39 in the hospital. By March 13, that rate had risen to 30.5.

Connecticut data shows that 22 percent of people aged 45 to 54 have been fully vaccinated. People aged younger than 45 will be eligible to register for vaccines as of April 1, and, so far, only 10.7 percent of people aged between 35 and 44 have been fully vaccinated.

Since January, hospitalization rates have never been as low as they were last summer. In July, there was a hospitalization rate of 1.6 for every 100,000 people.

Though younger people may be hospitalized at greater rates than older residents, Silard said their outcomes are better.

“Those age groups tend to do much better,” she said. “That’s not who we’re seeing critically ill.”

There are more than 1,000 new coronavirus cases on average in Connecticut per day. That’s half of where the state was in terms of new COVID cases in January, but the numbers show a gentle but distinct curve upwards.

The average number of new COVID cases in Connecticut has increased every day since March 11. The high so far in 2021 was in January, when there were an average of 3,017 new coronavirus cases.

Those increases in cases and hospitalizations may be attributable to the spread of more infectious variants, according to UConn disease modeler Pedro Mendes.

“The simple model without variants predicts that we should have around 250 hospitalizations now, but they are [greater than] 400,” he said.

The U.K. variant made up 38.1 percent of all samples tested by Yale New Haven last week. The variant is spreading, and it’s resulting in more cases and (slightly) more hospitalizations,” Mendes said.

“The new model includes a variant that is 50 percent more infective than the wild type (matching the characteristics of the B.1.1.7 variant),” he said. “This model fits the data much better; this is in line with a variant becoming more established here.”