Phils can’t allow a productive season to collapse
PHILADELPHIA >> From April through August, through successes and slumps, for most of the baseball season, the 2016 Phillies provided bursts of achievement, hints at excellence and overall organizational improvement.
Their real challenge, though, is about to begin.
Can they survive these final five weeks without it all collapsing?
They don’t discuss that, because Pete Mackanin didn’t want the players thinking about the past or the future, the competition on the field or the competition in the system. He believed that if the players just showed up and offered 162 equal installments of concentration, the season would prove worthwhile.
For that, Mackanin earned an early manager of the year candidacy, one that remains viable, if only a little. He squeezed the most out of an operation that last season lost 99 times. He trusted young pitching, discovered a reliable closer, demanded better hitting and eventually received some. He made changes when necessary, resisted changes when difficult and maintained a functional, relatively happy clubhouse. Before the season, Vegas insisted the Phillies would win about 66 times. As they headed to Chicago for a Tuesday night game against the White Sox, they were on a pace to win 75. Not bad.
Through it, there were moments — signs of a franchise pointed in the right direction. There was the quick start of Aaron Nola, and the declaration from Mackanin that the young right-hander was a “special” pitcher. There was the All-Star first-half of Odubel Herrera, a “born hitter” as Mackanin concluded. There was the promotion of Tommy Joseph to the majors, and his immediate blast of power. There was Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez, both hitting well in the second half. There was Jeanmar Gomez, surfacing as that closer, Cameron Rupp showing power, Aaron Altherr recovering from a wrist injury, Vince Velasquez striking out 16.
There was all of that. But it does not carry through the next five weeks, it not only won’t matter, it will mean the Phillies had just wasted another summer.
Already, Nola has been mothballed with an elbow problem, first declared not serious, since jamming him into the waiting room of Dr. James Andrews, an arm surgeon. If Nola requires Tommy John surgery, he’s gone until 2018. Zach Eflin, an intriguing prospect turned interesting majorleague starter, has had one knee operation and needs another. Jeremy Hellickson is unsigned and may not return for 2017. Velasquez, who admits to injury troubles, has had the occasional tired arm. The Phillies’ plan was to use a strength-in-numbers approach to a championshiplevel pitching staff. That will help. But they will enter the offseason with virtually no idea about a 2017 rotation.
“More than anything, it reinforces the position that we’ve taken for most of the last year about the importance of starting pitching depth,” G.M. Matt Klentak said. “Aaron had a pretty good run this year. Pitched for four months and obviously his first two months were pretty darn good. His second two months were not as good but I think we saw a lot of things from him this year that were really encouraging. Did he get to a certain innings limit or whatever that we would have ideally had him reach? No. But on the mound I think we saw a lot of really positive things.”
Herrera was a .343 hitter into May, explaining his All-Star distinction. Since then, he has hit .261. If that trend continues, the Phils won’t have the developing star they once imagined. Hernandez and Freddy Galvis have become a good double play combination, but the Phils will break that up once J.P. Crawford arrives.
Come September, rosters can be expanded. That could mean a chance for Nick Williams to show he can hit major-league pitching with power. It could also show that he is overwhelmed. If so, where to the Phillies turn for bigleague-ready power? Their better minor-league power hitters are in Class AA Reading. And it won’t be Ryan Howard, who keeps providing home runs, because he’ll be bought out before Halloween.
Can Gomez continue to pitch like an All-Star closer? Has Hector Neris peaked? What about Velasquez, who has been so out of sorts in his recent starts that some believe he is destined for the bullpen.
“I told him to enjoy learning about climbing the ladder, enjoy the fight, the struggle to get to where you want to be,” Mackanin said the other day, after a 9-0 loss to the Cardinals. “Because he’s going to be real good at one point. He’s got to keep battling and working at it.”
There were points this season where the Phillies’ rebuilding project seemed on schedule. But the season is not over. The Phillies have lost four of their last six, will play their next five on the road, then will host first-place Washington for three. That’s an opportunity. That’s a challenge. That could be a problem. From there, they will head into September, with a month to justify what could have been considered a productive season … or watch a once-promising season crash.
Five weeks. Five seasonaltering, franchise-defining weeks.