Mired by slumps, Herrera looks to be a star again
A year ago, Odubel Herrera was a star.
A year ago, he was in San Diego, posing for a team photo with the National League team, then taking an at-bat and playing some center field in the All-Star Game.
A year ago, Odubel Herrera was a .294 hitter at midseason, a 24-year-old with speed and a natural ability to hit a baseball. “He’s a special guy,” Pete Mackanin said. A year ago, the manager said that. But a year later, it is so much different.
There will be another All-Star Game Tuesday night, this time in Miami. Herrera will not be involved. It’s his fee for striking out 84 times in roughly half a season, for his batting average falling 30 points from the .286 he would hit in 2016, when his slumps have outnumbered his hot streaks. One year. Disappointing?
“I don’t know if the word would be ‘disappointed,’” Herrera was saying the other night in the clubhouse at Citizens Bank Park. “But it’s definitely frustrating when you work hard and you try to do the best you can do and the results don’t show. It’s part of baseball. I keep my head up. I try to be positive. I know sooner or later I am going to start getting better results. And that’s what I’m hoping for.”
There is no particular scientific reason for Herrera’s deteriorated situation, 365 days later. He puts in as much work in the cage, maintains premium physical shape, hasn’t been an in-house disturbance and hasn’t dismissed any obligations. In that, he is the same player he was last July. Which, as the data continues to grow, best explains the situation: Herrera is, has been, and likely will be a player prone to dramatic sways of production. Indeed, he recently had a startling spray of excellence, hitting 14 doubles in June, most in the majors. Over his past 12 games, he has had three three-hit games … that after having one in his first 51 games.
He’s up. He’s down. And last year, he was so hot, so early – he was hitting .330 through May 7 – that it was enough to make him the most reasonable All-Star candidate from the Phillies, who would be limited to the obligatory one. But last July, Herrera was a .227 hitter, making critics wonder even then if his All-Star appearance was the result of a well-timed statistical spike. Yet from August through the end of the season, he was a .295 hitter, settling in at .286 for the season.
So how could the Phillies have expected him to be anything but inconsistent again this year?
“Odubel had a terrible May,” Matt Klentak said. “I don’t know how to say it any more clearly than that. Then he had an .880 OPS in June. He’s hitting over .300 in July. His overall season numbers may not reflect that, but he’s been pretty good for the last six weeks, arguably, as good a stretch offensively as he’s had in his career.
“I think his defense has always been what I’ve fallen back on when I talk about Odubel. Even when he’s not hitting, his defense keeps him in the lineup because of the value he brings out there. And when he is hitting like he’s hit the last six weeks, he’s a really good player.”
So Klentak has some numbers in his favor. He also has one working against him: That would be $30.5 million, or what he guaranteed Herrera in the offseason, when the general manager extended his contract through 2023, and without much public pressure … or support. Since Klentak needs some return from that investment for his own reputation, he will invent some.
“No two players are exactly alike,” Klentak said. “Some players have strengths in certain areas and weaknesses in other areas. But, again, I think the total package that Odubel brings is still a really good baseball player, even with hot and cold streaks and occasional inconsistencies. If you look at it purely objectively, in the aggregate, he’s a good player.”
He’s a good player. But he is being paid as a star player. And since he will have a silent All-Star break, the perception that Herrera has been a useless failure grows.
“I do think the team is expecting more from me because they know what I am capable of,” said Herrera, who hit a home run Sunday, in the Phils’ last game before the break. “They know what kind of work I do and what kind of player I am. The fans probably expect a lot from me, a lot more than last year, because it’s a new contract and they always expect the best from the players. But I believe in myself. I believe in my talent. That’s all I can do, be faithful to that.”
He’s 25 and he has been in the big-leagues for three years. He is a .283 career hitter and a good defensive center fielder. His base-running needs improvement. He strikes out too often. But his hot streaks can carry a team for a while.
“I think he’s going to hit .280,” Mackanin said. “I think he is going to. He has his moments. Even two years ago, he was hitting .240-something at the halfway mark and ended up hitting .290-something. I think he is going to hit .280. Oddly enough, he is one of those guys nobody can figure out and he ends up hitting .280.”
That’s not star value, but it is trending that way. For the Phillies, that will have to be enough for a while.
“I really believe that all I need to do is keep playing,” Herrera said. “Keep playing. I have faith in my routine. I want to be competitive every at-bat. I just try to be hopeful that sooner or later things are going to show up for me. I really think I have a good work ethic. Every day before the game, I get mentally and physically ready to play. I work hard. So I am sure it is going to happen.”
Does that mean more AllStar Games … and soon?
“Yeah,” Herrera said, smiling. “Yeah. For sure.”