OUR PREDICTIONS

B eginning at the Golden Globes and continuing on through every awards show this season, Hollywood has paid tribute to powerful women in the movies.

Sure, a lot of the commemoration has been as a result of the sexual harassment scandals which rocked the industry but 2017 was also a year in which the three top grossing movies – “Beauty and the Beast,” “Wonder Woman” and “Stars Wars: The Last Jedi” – were anchored by female leads.

This year’s Oscar telecast is sure to provide further proof that women are important both in front and behind the big screen. The three Best Picture front-runners – “Lady Bird,” “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – are all built around complex female characters. And Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird’s” writer/director, landed a Best Director nod, only the fifth woman in Academy history.

When the awards are presented on March 4, there are likely to be a few surprises. Even though the acting awards are fairly easy to predict, the Best Picture prize itself could swing a number of different ways.

Over the last few years, Oscar has enjoyed spreading the wealth around. That’s a tradition that will surely continue in 2018 as a bevy of deserving movies are likely to win big.

Here are our predictions and preferences for this year’s Oscar’s show:

Best Picture

The Nominees: “Call Me by Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Phantom Thread,” “The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will Win: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Should Win: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

The Rationale: The toughest category to predict could easily go to “The Shape of Water,” “Lady Bird” or even “Dunkirk.” But “Three Billboards,” with its examination of bigotry and class divide, seems to be particularly timely in Trump’s America. It has run afoul of the PC police, though, which could spell trouble. Also, its writer/director Martin McDonagh failed to snag a Best Director nod. “Shape of Water” is such a strong contender but, in the end, watch “Three Billboards” snag the top prize.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name,” Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread,” Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out,” Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” and Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” Will Win: Oldman Should Win: Oldman The Rationale: Not only is Oldman long overdue but he’s playing a much-loved historical figure in

a powerful biopic. If that’s not catnip for Oscar voters, nothing is. Oldman is this year’s surest sure thing.

Best Actress

The Nominees: Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water,” Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya,” Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” and Meryl Streep for “The Post.”

Will Win: McDormand Should Win: McDormand The Rationale: If there’s a “Three Billboards” backlash, it could hurt McDormand, allowing Ronan or Hawkins to score their first Oscars. All of the perfs in this category are sublime but McDormand shows the most range with a turn that’s both funny and heart wrenching.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project,” Woody Harrelson,

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water,” Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World” and Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Will Win: Rockwell Should Win: Rockwell The Rationale: Just like Gary Oldman, Rockwell is one of those actors who’s so good that he’s easy to take for granted. But “Three Billboards” reminds you just how amazing Rockwell can be. If Rockwell and Harrelson somehow cancel each other out, Dafoe could take home the Golden Boy. But it feels like it is Rockwell’s year.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound,” Allison Janney, “I, Tonya,” Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread,” Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” and Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water” Will Win: Janney Should Win: A tie between Janney and Metcalf

The Rationale: As different kinds of mothers, Janney and Metcalf were perfection. Janney has the edge because her character in “I, Tonya” is flashier and funnier. Then again, “Lady Bird” is more popular with Oscar voters which could help nudge Metcalf over the finishing line. Here’s hoping it’s a tie.

Best Director

The Nominees: Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk,” Jordan Peele, “Get Out,” Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird,” Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread,” Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water.” Will Win: Del Toro Should Win: Del Toro The Rationale: By honoring Del Toro, Oscar voters can celebrate “Shape of Water,” which is, among other things, a valentine to monster movies of yore. And Del Toro is the kind of visionary which the Academy enjoys championing. Giving the prize to Gerwig would be a nice way to pay tribute not only to “Lady Bird” but to all of the deserving women who starred in the acclaimed coming-of-age saga. Still, look for Del Toro to rise to the top.