With limitations lifted, a wild season can unfold
Allow former stars to age, to mellow and to fade.
Enable a semiretired, former executive to formally lower all expectations with orders to the fan base to be patient, remain that way, and don’t even think about asking questions.
Hire an entrylevel general manager and give him a few years to learn the job. Be cheap. Be really cheap. Do all of that as a majorleague baseball franchise and the avalanche is unavoidable. Do all of that, and the Phillies of 2013 through 2017 will happen, and they will finish fourth, fifth, fifth, fourth and fifth in a fiveteam division. Do all of that and the customers will hide.
Do all of that … then never,
ever do it again.
The 2018 Phillies will play their season opener Thursday in Atlanta, and they will do so with the only promise that matters: For the first time in too long, they are not going to tolerate failure. And as starting points go, that is as effective a message as a first-pitch heater under the chin, a swing from the cleats, a dash to first base.
Be bold. That was the message of the new manager, Gabe Kapler. Years ago, as it was when Dave Cash announced “Yes We Can”, that would have wound up on bumper stickers. Anymore, it becomes a hashtag. Same thing, different mobile device.
Kapler is 42, old enough and seasoned enough in multiple aspects of baseball to know that pitching means more than slogans, but young enough to believe that his clubhouse speeches will motivate.
“The thought process is to create an environment where people feel they can be bold and comfortable,” Kapler said in rolling out the ad campaign. “We can win. We’re fighting for the N.L. East in September.”
That’s the manager’s plan. It beats Pete Mackanin’s odd wail last season that the goal was to be ordinary and play .500 baseball for as long as possible. And since Vegas is figuring Kapler’s team to finish third in the division, not last, it is not a comical forecast. That’s what happens when an organization decides to behave.
If the Phillies showed nothing else since going 66-96, they demonstrated they weren’t having that again. They dumped Mackanin, who by then was out of answers for anything. They started to spend on talent, signing two of the top 10 on any reasonable free-agent board. And they chose to trust what they’d been building, giving farmgrown talents full-time opportunities.
“When the Twins clinched their postseason berth, I was reading some of their comments coming out of there,” Matt Klentak said, late last season. “And one of the things that I really admired about their season is how they said they never put limits on themselves.”
If the Phillies do contend this season, it is because they lifted those limitations. They needed a different kind of lineup, keyed by a different kind of hitter. So they spent up to $59 million over three years, options included, for Carlos Santana, who has a command of the strike zone and the strength to propel baseballs over fences when that is violated. Bold. But they also needed a veteran, mature, reliable pitcher to stabilize a young staff behind developing star Aaron Nola. And they risked up to $115,000,000 to secure Jake Arrieta, who has been one of the most dominating right-handers of his generation. Bolder.
Neither move was as likely to tip a team into world championship contention as it was when the Phils sprung for Pete Rose, or later when they endeavored to monopolize every good starting pitcher in the sport. But for message-sending purposes, adding Santana and Arrieta also should have the effect of signing Jim Tome in 2002. Even if the ripples didn’t yield a playoff spot for five years, instantly, expectations had changed. So, they will change for the Phillies. As Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras said, “I don’t think there’s a wait here. There’s talent in here that needs experiential refinement, attitude and confidence. When you bring in players like Jake, you probably put the cream in the coffee when it’s ready to drink.”
The Phillies don’t need a venti-sized coffee, not at this point. That, they keep hinting, they will seek next season, when Bryce Harper and Manny Machado worm free and John Middleton can prove he was serious that he would spend his franchise back to contention or, as he said, die trying. But if enough goes right, the Phils could be close enough to the 87-90 wins that typically (if not always) mean second-wild-card entry to the postseason.
Rhys Hoskins, J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro and, eventually, Scott Kingery must be the nextgeneration answer to the Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins core. Someone from Mackanin’s accurately characterized group of “usual suspects” must emerge as a solid No. 3 starter behind Nola and Arrieta. The new, deeper bullpen must function as Klentak has it designed. And Kapler, who promises motivation, “razor-sharp turns around the bases,” and the best conditioned team in the sport, must be able to move his agenda.
If so, the Phillies will contend long enough into the season for Klentak to make a significant tradedeadline move. And if so, they will bump from that third-place forecast and into a wild-card spot. This year. Not next. It will be their reward for finally being bold enough to believe it is possible.