Phils face make-or-break third pick
In 2006 it was Evan Longoria. Two years later it was Eric Hosmer. Manny Machado came two years after that. In 2011 it was Trevor Bauer.
All of them were the third player selected in the first round of Major League Baseball’s annual draft.
Then again, Chris Guler, Donovan Tate, Luis Montanez, Dewan Brazelton, Philip Humber, Jeff Clement and Josh Vitter were also the third player chosen. Their names are proof that being taken that high in the draft is not necessarily a ticket to stardom.
Monday evening the Phillies will add another name to the third-player-selected list. Even at this late date it isn’t clear who that player will be, but it is clear that whoever it is, it will be a gamble. There are no can’t-miss prospects in this year’s draft.
Chances are they aren’t going to find another Manny Machado. They have to hope they don’t come up with another Dewan Brazelton.
Nevertheless, this pick alone will probably determine whether or not the Phillies have a successful draft. They forfeited their second-round pick when they signed free agent Carlos Santana. They forfeited their third-round pick when they signed Jake Arrieta. After making the third selec-
tion their second choice will be selection 107.
There will be many potential choices.
If they decide they want a pitcher they might consider Matthew Libertore, a left-hander from Glendale, Ariz., Shane McClanahan, a lefty from the University of South Florida, Casey Mize, a right-hander from Auburn or Brady Singer, a right-hander from Florida.
Libertore, whose fastball has been clocked at 96 miles per hour, probably has a higher ceiling than the others but he is several years away the maturity that will be necessary to pitch in the major leagues. Moreover, he is known to be entertaining a scholarship offer from the University of Arizona, and might not sign at all.
McClanahan is also a flamethrower, having been
clocked at 100 mph. His strike out totals are impressive but his overall control is not. At South Florida he has walked 44 batters in 71 1/3 innings and his won-loss mark was only 5-6. Health is also a consideration for a player who has already undergone Tommy John surgery.
Health issues have dogged Mize through high school and college, but he has been healthy enough this season to make 15 starts (102 2/3 innings) for Auburn and put up some impressive numbers in college baseball’s toughest conference. Most impressive of all is he has struck out 140 batters while walking only 10. His wonloss record is 9-5.
Florida’s Singer has an even better record (10-1) in the same conference but he has done that essentially with a fastball and a slider. It is doubtful he can become a major leaguer unless he develops an offspeed pitch.
If the Phillies decide they’d prefer to draft an everyday player they might choose infielders Jonathan India of Florida, Alec Bohm of Wichita State or Nick Madrigal of Oregon State.
Bohm, at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, is a pure slugger who hit .351 with a wooden bat in last summer’s Cape Cod League. He plays third base in college
but not particularly well. He’ll probably be a first baseman as a professional.
India is also a third baseman, although he’s played shortstop as well as third at Florida. He is hitting .362 for the Gators and more than half of his hits have gone for extra bases. He has stolen 11 bases in 57 games.
Madrigal is a 5-foot-7
middle infielder who batted .395 in 29 games with Oregon State. He lacks power and his throwing arm is below average, but his speed and fielding range are first-rate. He will probably be a second baseman as a professional.
If the Phillies want to prioritize defense they might consider Joey Bart, a catcher from Georgia Tech. Bart is a power hitter with a tremendous arm, but he also piles up strikeouts (57 times in 56 games this season). Scouts wonder if he’ll be able to consistently hit major league pitching.
There’s also Travis Swaggerty, a center fielder from South Alabama who dazzles scouts with his ability to run, field and throw. He has some power (13) homers but his batting average (.294) leaves them wondering if he’ll be able to hit well enough to become a major league regular.
In all likelihood two
of these players won’t be available when the Phillies pick, but the others will all remain on the board.
It then will be time for somebody to take a deep breath. Whatever happens next could be very important.