Kavanaugh may be the calm before the storm
Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump’s nominee to replace retiring “swing vote” Justice Anthony Kennedy, is a sound, safe choice to fill the upcoming Supreme Court vacancy.
President Trump’s nominee to replace retiring “swing vote” Justice Anthony Kennedy is a sound, safe choice.
Impeccably credentialed, conventionally conservative, and less likely than other shortlisted judges to overturn landmark culture-war case law, Kavanaugh indicates a willingness on Trump’s part to sometimes opt against ratcheting up open political conflict.
Of course, that has not stopped the usual ideological suspects from flying into action to discredit and impugn Kavanaugh.
In today’s paranoiac partisan atmosphere, critics have already accused Kavanaugh of being Kennedy’s own allbut-handpicked successor, or Trump’s favorite due to his prior opinions on executive immunity.
A nationally respected expert on administrative law, Kavanaugh has also been subject to cries that he will slavishly serve the interests of big business.
Much nearer to the truth is informed speculation that, if confirmed, Kavanaugh will find occasion to chip away at the federal bureaucracy more to curb government excess than to line the pockets of CEOs.
In that sense, the wave of enthusiasm from Republican circles for Kavanaugh’s nomination reflects an earnest hope on the part of established conservative elites for an eventual return to “normal” after, if not during, Trump’s tenure in office.
Observers across the ideological spectrum had braced for a confrontational choice from Trump, worried the legitimacy of the Supreme Court might come under real doubt. That dark cloud appears to have passed.
But even mainline liberal commentators have begun to speak up in favor of radical “reforms” to the court, including term-limiting justices and packing the bench with an expanded roster.
And on the right, pro-life activists, especially among Kavanaugh’s fellow Catholics, have grown more emboldened, warning that a failure to overturn Roe v. Wade should result in a political revolt against governing Republicans.
Despite Kavanaugh’s reassuring image of normality and judicial cohesion, his presence on the court will probably do nothing to tamp down or discourage deepening polarization in America and the continued weakening of institutional authority.
In the midst of so much dry kindling, Kavanaugh could surprise and help strike a spark for out and out political warfare.
Even if he does not, however, his confirmation is apt to function more as a breather before a fresh round of potentially wrenching national change than as ballast for business as usual.
Administrative rot, weak constitutional law, and the vagaries of life in our digital age all conspire to strengthen today’s political and legal storms.
Less than a decade ago, the safe bet was that jurists like Kavanaugh would go on filling Supreme Court vacancies until the end of days.
But that was the sort of bet that resulted in top analysts giving Hillary Clinton overwhelming odds of winning the White House.
Not only are times changing — more and more, Americans with extreme, comprehensive views desire even greater change.
Looking back, there is a real chance Kavanaugh will seem like one of the last of a passing breed.
The wave of enthusiasm from Republican circles for Kavanaugh’s nomination reflects an earnest hope on the part of established conservative elites for an eventual return to “normal.”