How great engineers handle uncertainty

Successful engineers can cope and thrive in uncertainty.

Successful engineers cope with and may even thrive in uncertainty. Engineers are supposed to focus their attention on standards, laws, regulations, design best practices, specifications, and sound engineering judgment. Therefore, the impression of the engineer’s work is that it is a very regimented, methodical and requires control and structure. However, a very regimented approach is in direct conflict with the flexibility and adaptability required to deal with uncertainty.

Here are a few thoughts on what engineers do to deal with uncertainty.

Define and mitigate the uncertainty

Successful engineers do not ignore the uncertainty. Instead, they carefully analyze situations by breaking things down into stages and using a fault tree analysis to more efficiently and expeditiously determine the source of the problems. Engineers then determine how to mitigate any uncertainty in processes, planning, design, construction and their overall approach to find solutions. And they develop a worstcase scenario by quantifying the uncertainty.

Define and understand the bigger picture

Successful engineers focus on the big picture of their projects. They do not lose sight of the reasons why they are doing certain tasks, completing required documents, or requesting specific products and services of subcontractors and suppliers. Highly uncertain environments can make it is easy to push ahead and just do the work. It is important to pause periodically to try and understand what is going on and to know their work is on track. This is critical because the engineer needs the flexibility to pivot.

Pursue and define the best answers

Highly uncertain environments can present a temptation to be satisfied with simplistic answers to tough questions. The “we have always done it this way” mentality stifles creativity and innovation to create the best design solution. The decision to reuse an old design often is made due to pressure to use shortcuts as opposed to strong and innovative engineering design practice. Determination and perseverance are needed to decide what needs to be done in uncertain environments.

Assess and effectively communicate risk

Engineers tend to be risk averse and tend to try to develop the perfect solution — one that will always work. This is not possible in a complex and rapidly changing world. It is impossible to know every factor at play and if any of those factors have remained constant. Successful engineers know how to assess and consider the amount of risk in their work.

Effective risk communication from engineers enables people to make informed decisions by providing structural ways to understand the uncertainties inherent in their design choices and the solutions they develop and implement.

The following quote seems to be appropriate to engineers and handling uncertainty:

“I think when we know that we actually do live in uncertainty, then we ought to admit it; it is of great value to realize we do not know the answers to different questions. This attitude of mind — this attitude of uncertainty — is vital to the scientist.” — Richard P. Feynman, American theoretical physicist.