GOP earthquake coming in 2022?

Analysis immediately after an election leaves a lot to be desired, since spin from both sides usually fails to convey an accurate picture of the new political landscape.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the recent election results, and what we can expect next year.

Not So Fast: Clearly, election night was a resounding success for Republicans. They won critical races, and were surprisingly competitive in places where the party had been down-and-out, all of which bodes well for the GOP in 2022. But party leaders and, more importantly, rank-and-file voters must guard against the overconfidence that ’22 will be a slam dunk. Granted, Republicans have three things that favor them heading into next year: History (where the party not in the White House usually makes big gains in off-year elections), redistricting (the GOP will pick up a number of congressional seats), and a center-right nation that disagrees with much of the Biden administration’s policies.

While the Republicans should be able to win the House fairly easily, controlling the Senate will be a much taller task, given that a number of popular GOP incumbents are retiring (Sens. Toomey, Portman). And Republican efforts to retake that chamber were just dealt a significant blow after highly-regarded New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu decided against running for the Granite State’s crucial senate seat.

Bottom line: a year is an eternity in politics, and, despite today’s political winds, anything can happen — a message that Republicans leaders should heed so that the party doesn’t rest on its laurels and blow a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Biggest Earthquake: Most of the post-election attention has been focused on Virginia’s gubernatorial race, where Glenn Youngkin became the first GOP candidate to win statewide since 2009. It was a significant achievement for the newcomer, who bested former governor and consummate political insider Terry McAuliffe. But that’s not the race that should have Democrats most shaking in their boots.

That honor goes to Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s almostsuccessful upset bid of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy. Why does that contest matter so much? Because Jersey is, has been, and will continue to be a rock-solid Blue state, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than one million voters.

Most Spellbinding Win: Just four years after setting a record for running the nation’s most expensive state legislative race, New Jersey Senate President, Democrat Steve Sweeney appears to have been beaten by lifelong truck driver Ed Durr, who ran on a conservative, blue-collar-values platform. Mr. Durr spend a pittance compared to the Garden State’s second-most powerful politician, yet his message resonated with an electorate fed up with government incompetence and wasteful spending. If that’s not a massive flashing red light for a party that thinks government — not the people — knows best, nothing is.

Trump Train Is Toxic: Much was made about Virginia’s new governor keeping Donald Trump at arm’s length, for good reason. Yes, the former president endorsed Mr. Younkin in the primary, but that was about it for Mr. Trump’s involvement, as he did not campaign in-state, nor make any appearances with the candidate. In many areas, that strategy will become the go-to model: placate the base in the primary with mild Trump endorsements, while focusing on local issues, running against Washington, and steering clear of Mr. Trump in the general election.

Conversely, the lesson for the Democrats is that, in real life, most people don’t care about a boogeyman — no matter how despised — once he is out of office. Instead, voters focus on the here-and-now: inflation, school curriculums, gas prices, social engineering, spending, and crime. But make no mistake: in many parts of the country, Donald Trump remains an extremely potent force, especially in primary elections.

A Vote For A New Voting Method: Delaware County’s new voting system is, in a word, horrible. Having a verified paper trail is admirable, but it simply cannot take five minutes or more to vote — which it did for many, despite there being barely a handful of voters at the polls. If it takes that long in a low-turnout off-year election, what will the lines look like in a presidential year? Answer: out the door and down the block, resulting in people turning around and going home — the opposite of achieving high-voter turnout.

There absolutely must be a better way, since the integrity of voter secrecy must always remain sacrosanct.

And a vote on that reform should be unanimous.