USE INFERENCES TO DEFEND OR DECLARE

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle wrote, “It is not really difficult to construct a series of inferences, each dependent upon its predecessor and each simple in itself. If, after doing so, one simply knocks out all the central inferences and presents one’s audience with the starting-point and the conclusion, one may produce a startling, though perhaps a meretricious, effect.”

East missed an inference in today’s deal, which allowed South to effect a meretricious line of play.

South’s jump to three spades over his partner’s transfer bid showed a (near) maximum with four trumps and a doubleton.

West led the heart 10, dummy played the three, East encouraged with the eight, and South ducked. Declarer won West’s heart continuation, drew trumps in two rounds, cashed the club aceking, ruffed a club on the board and trumped dummy’s last heart in hand. Now South led his last club and, when West produced the 10, discarded a diamond from the dummy. West, with nothing but diamonds left, had to give declarer a trick with his king. South took five spades, one heart, one diamond, two clubs and the heart ruff in hand.

That was well played, but East shouldn’t have given declarer a chance to shine. When South didn’t cover the heart 10 with dummy’s jack at trick one, West was marked with the heart nine. East should have overtaken with the heart queen. If South ducked, East could have shifted to the diamond queen, defeating the contract immediately. Or if South won trick one, he could not have eliminated hearts. East would have won the second round of the suit and made the lethal diamond switch.