How Bay Area counties are preparing for a surge in vaccine demand, supply
In the next two weeks, California is poised to receive its largest supply of COVID-19 vaccine yet with nearly 1.25 million doses of either the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine or the initial shots of the twodose Pfizer and Moderna options. The Golden State will also receive equivalent second doses.
The promised supplies are critical to meet a surge in demand, as the state prepares to vaccinate all Californians age 50 and older starting Thursday and those age 16 and older starting April 15.
If the pace of expansion continues as planned, most Californians could be at least partially protected by the end of June, based on data provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease and Control.
But the challenge will be getting vaccines to elders, the disadvantaged and other people who need it most, as younger and more healthy residents gain access, said experts.
“I strongly encourage those of you who are currently eligible to get your vaccine now, if possible, before April 1 — when you will be competing with larger populations in the county,” said Dr. Gail Newel, health officer for Santa Cruz County.
California’s vaccine landscape could resemble a basketball game, with “an 80-year-old grandmother on the court doing a ‘jump ball’ against (NBA star) Kevin Durant,” said Gary Velasquez, CEO of Cogitativo, a Berkeley-based data science company which tracks vaccine distribution. “We’ve got to be very thoughtful and disciplined about reaching the most vulnerable communities.”
A major jump in Johnson & Johnson’s production is credited for part of the increased dosage. There will be a five-fold increase in supplies available next week, jumping from 44,000 available the week of March 22 to an anticipated 224,000 doses earmarked for delivery of the week of April 5.
This week, the company’s production got a boost from manufacturing partner Catalent, which on Tuesday received authorization from the Food and Drug Administration to produce and ship millions of doses of the vaccine. Catalent’s highspeed vial-filling machines in Bloomington, Indiana, can fill up to 400 vials per minute, potentially filling millions of vials a month.
More Pfizer vaccines are coming, as well, with 644,000 first doses expected to ship in two weeks, up from 524,000 doses this week. Moderna’s doses remain constant, with 380,000 first doses. Both the Pfizer and Moderna allotment include a separate and equal number of second doses that can be ordered for delivery two and three weeks later, respectively.
The increase demonstrates “the muscle of the U.S. government when it gets behind domestic production, and pushes companies to work with each other,” said Zain Rizvi, who specializes in pharmaceutical innovation and access to medicines for the nonprofit watchdog group Public Citizen, based in Washington D.C.
How long will it take to protect everyone? It depends if the state stays on track — with doses expected to double by mid-April and triple by mid-June.
There are about 32 million adults over 18 in California, of which 7.6 million are between the age of 5064. Nearly 11 million people have already received their first dose. At the expected rate of vaccination in the coming weeks — if weekly doses jump from 1.25 million to 2.50 million in mid-April, and 3.75 million in mid-June — the remaining 22 million adults could be partially vaccinated by the end of June.
Additional doses are also being administered at federal vaccine sites, long term care facilities, federally qualified health centers and retail pharmacies like Walgreens and CVS, which states don’t control. It’s unknown how many of those doses have been given.
After weeks of uncertainty, local health officials are now preparing to handle a surge in supply.
• In San Mateo County, “if the opening of eligibility aligns with much more supply to the county, we would expect to continue to mobilize locally targeted clinics in our most vulnerable communities, as well as offering mass vaccination at highthroughput sites such as the San Mateo County Event Center and the San Francisco Airport Long Term Parking garage,” said Louise Rogers, chief of San Mateo County Health.
“The current supply constraints and limited advance notice make it more difficult to reach those with less flexibility in their work, care-giving, or personal responsibilities,” she said.
• Alameda County is finalizing plans to build additional capacity, while also evaluating new options to reach residents who are homebound or lack transportation. It will continue to focus on mobile units and other efforts in low-income communities and where disease has caused greater impact, said spokesperson Neetu Balram. The California Office of Emergency Services announced that it is closing the Oakland Coliseum mass vaccination site on April 11.
• Contra Costa County said its infrastructure is in place to accommodate more doses, including partnerships with Kaiser Permanente and the City of Concord to administer up to 15,000 doses at a large, drive-through vaccine site in Concord starting next week.
• Santa Cruz County is considering plans to expand some of its vaccination sites and add extra days to the mass vaccination clinics at the fairgrounds in Watsonville.
“Supply will triple by June, and our intent is to have triple the capacity that we currently have to give shots,” said deputy health officer Dr. David Ghilarducci.
• In Santa Clara County, the network of providers can give 200,000 vaccines a week once doses become readily available, according to a statement. This includes a single location that can manage up to 15,000 vaccines per day, multiple sites with capacity to serve thousands per day, and smaller pop-up locations focused on communities and workers most at risk from COVID-19.
“It is simply a matter of supply,” according to the county.