Christmas trees in trouble
Expect tighter supply and higher prices, sellers say. Even fake ones.
Thanksgiving weekend is the traditional kickoff for Christmas tree shopping.
But with a high percentage of seasonal products stuck at the overloaded ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the task is more urgent than usual this year.
“If you want to wait until then, I would recommend making it happen that weekend and not wait a minute longer,” said Jami Warner, executive director of the American Christmas Tree Association in Sacramento.
“I think the good news is that Christmas is not canceled. Consumers will be able to find real and artificial Christmas trees this season. But we’re recommending that they start shopping now, whether it’s online or in person.”
The West Coast is experiencing a Christmas tree shortage, according to Warner and other experts.
Due to supply chain issues, artificial trees and ornaments are arriving much later than usual.
Balsam Hill, a Bay Area company that specializes in artificial Christmas trees, wreaths and seasonal decor, has received about 50% of its stock, and it should have 80% by now, according to Mac Harman, founder and chief executive officer.
Variety as well as volume is down. In a phone interview, Harman said his company had about 60% of its items available for sale, and it should have 100%.
“If we have 500 items to sell, we might have 300 in by now. That’s a challenge.”
High demand, lower inventory
Customers are ready and eager to spend on holiday cheer. There are supply chain issues and a shortage of workers, but the National Retail Federation is predicting holiday spending will shatter records in 2021, climbing between 8.5% and 10.5% over 2020 to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion. And 2020 was a good year, with sales up 8.3% over 2019, according to the federation.
“We all thought 2020 was crazy, and 2021 should be even more of an adventure,” Harman said.
The inventory is down on real trees grown in the Northwest for a number of reasons, including wildfires, drought and a shortage of truck drivers to transport them, Warner said in a separate phone interview.
Christmas trees are grown on farms and take 10 years to mature, and fewer were planted in the years after the Great Recession of 2008, Harman said.
“Because of high demand, especially last year because of COVID, growers would harvest a little bit smaller trees. They borrowed from next year’s crop. For this year, that’s been perpetuated. So you’re going to see a little bit smaller trees on the market.”
The result is prices that are 20%-30% higher this year for both real and artificial trees, according to Warner.
The median price for a real tree in 2020 was $81, according to Fortune magazine. Forbes’ 2020 picks for artificial trees included several that were less than $100 but others as high as $425.
Like Warner, Harman advised getting an early start on shopping, but with a caveat.
“Things are coming in, and they’re selling out. I think honestly there is a lot of stuff that is going to come later. So there are probably going to be some good deals a little bit closer to Christmas.”
He said he had a friend who was looking for the perfect tree for his living room and his first two choices weren’t available. Harman told him, “If you can, wait two weeks. If it’s not in stock in two weeks, then I’d pick your third choice. And then hopefully your third choice is still available.
“I know it’s a confusing message, but it is the reality.”
People who shop early for real trees face the fact that they will dry up and become fire hazards. They will last four-five weeks maximum, Warner said.
What’s in demand
People shopping for artificial trees face mind-boggling choices.
“There are hundreds and hundreds of variations,” said Warner. “Tall, short, three-sided, realistic-looking, funky, rainbow, themed tree, tuxedo tree, all black with white lights. There’s something out there for everyone.”
Among popular, hard-tofind choices are retro aluminum trees, she said.
Prelit trees are among the most in demand. Since they are already strung with lights, they don’t necessarily have to be trimmed.
“You fluff it and plug it in, and ‘Merry Christmas,’ ” said Warner.
Trees with advanced lighting that can be programmed by app are flying off the shelves, according to Harman.
White and frosted trees have also been trendy for the past couple of years, he said.
“And in the decorating space, we’re seeing silver and gold, and the fashion thing we’re seeing this year is blue.”
People are setting up multiple trees in different rooms. Some people have formal trees with elaborate, color-coordinated decorations in their living rooms, and other trees with sentimental ornaments and children’s handmade projects in their family rooms.
Outdoor trees are popular in the Los Angeles market and are selling out, he said.
“In addition to the Christmas tree being the centerpiece of the holiday, the one that everyone gathers around, Christmas trees are being used to decorate the outside of the home, different rooms in the home, a tree for every kid’s room, because there are so many choices,” said Warner. “And they’re fun. We all need a little bit more fun in our lives right now.”
TREE TIPS
Cost: Live trees are averaging $78 this year; $104 for artificial.
Making trees last: To avoid creating a fire hazard, live trees should get a gallon of water daily. Don’t expect them to last more than fourfive weeks. Properly stored, artificial trees should last at least 10 years.
Source: American Christmas Tree Association