Gauging the effect of the midterms

If politics is about the art of the possible, politicians who dream big are either visionaries (they were successful) or out-oftouch (they failed).

The jury is still out on President Joe Biden’s first term, but the evidence, to date, doesn’t bode well for the 46th president.

Joe Biden successfully ran against Donald Trump by promising a return to normalcy. His inaugural address stressed unity and consensus building.

Yet he hasn’t governed that way. One possibility for Biden’s turn was likely advice he received in March 2021 when he met with presidential historians Doris Kearns Goodwin, Jon Meacham, Michael Beschloss, Michael Eric Dyson and others.

While meeting reports vary, it’s well known that Joe Biden somehow got the idea that his presidency could be transformational, not transitional.

He hoped to launch a 21stcentury New Deal — harkening back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s massive social spending program that followed his 1932 election.

Or perhaps Joe Biden fancied himself a modern Lyndon Johnson who, with his Great Society, permanently expanded America’s safety net.

What was either not discussed or ignored was a conversation about the chief difference between FDR and LBJ’S presidency and Joe Biden’s.

LBJ and FDR had strong Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. Joe Biden does not: a 50/50 Senate and a five-seat House majority.

Once firmly ensconced in the White House, President Biden shelved his “deal-maker” rhetoric and aggressively pushed pent-up progressive priorities, the most egregious being his Build Back Better program. BBB was widely criticized for its extreme cost, massive cradle-to-grave reach and numerous “expiring” provisions that politicians use to hide the true program costs.

Democrats figured that once they turned on the spending spigot, even “temporary” programs would be renewed as benefits once given cannot easily be removed.

Fast-forward to today, barely four months until the midterm election. The news highlights a different reality. Even Biden supporters no longer use terms such as “transformation.” Instead, words such as “rudderless,” “hopeless” and “ineffective” now consistently appear.

American voters are buckling under the weight of inflation not seen since Jimmy Carter was president.

Joe Biden’s polling has cratered — 88% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

His approval ratings are 20% underwater.

Almost 70% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy. Democrats on the ballot don’t want the president campaigning with them.

California may not follow national trends this November. Regardless, America likely will wakeup Nov. 9 to a Republican wave election. It will see a new, Republicancontrolled House with a different California congressman as speaker.

The Senate, always a tough get for Republicans given the seat mix on the 2022 ballot, remains a distinct possibility for a GOP majority.

If Republicans take even one house of Congress, the Biden agenda as it currently exists becomes ancient history.

Can Joe Biden pivot and do what Bill Clinton did following his 1994 shellacking that ushered in Speaker Newt Gingrich and a Republican House? That change spurred welfare reform and an economic boom.

Or will Biden stay the course and govern with a pen and a phone — a task complicated by a conservative Supreme Court?

If gridlock ensues and with the economy in shambles, voters will further punish the incumbent president in 2024.

What’s on the political horizon?

The 2024 elections look promising for Republicans to run the table — House, Senate and president.

Already in the House minority, Democrats will have to defend 21 Senate seats to 10 Republican seats. Speculation grows daily about if or whether Joe Biden is capable of running for reelection, and Vice President Kamala Harris has not distinguished herself.

Maybe Joe Biden really does have the opportunity to be transformational — just not the way he and his fellow Democrats hoped.