Senate race takes shape ahead of March’s primary

When California Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein in early October, I wrote in these pages that Butler’s appointment would likely set up a “messy” 2024 California Senate primary, and with less than two months before primary, all signs point to a fiercely competitive, potentially ‘messy’ race in the nation’s largest state.

Nearly all recent polling shows that current U.S. Representative Adam Schiff, a 12-term Congressman endorsed by Democratic establishment figures such as Rep. Nancy Pelosi, is leading the field, while the battle for second place in the toptwo primary is virtually tied between current U.S. Rep. Kate Porter and former Los Angeles Dodgers player Steve Garvey.

Indeed, Schiff leads the extremely crowded field — 27 candidates will appear on the ballot in March — with slightly more than one-fifth (21%) of the vote. Porter (17%) and Garvey (13%) round out the top three, according to a recent poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times and the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. Factoring in the poll’s +/- 2% margin of error, it is a very close race between Porter and Garvey for second.

With that in mind, Progressive U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee cannot be counted out, despite her fourth place finish in the aforementioned L.A. Times/berkeley poll.

Just last month, Porter and Lee were virtually tied for third place in a different poll, conducted by Politico/morning Consult, which showed Porter at 17% and Lee at 14%, essentially a tie given the poll’s +/- 3% margin of error. Notably, Politico/morning Consult included “leaners” — those initially undecided but are thinking about supporting a particular candidate, which helped push Garvey (19%) into second place.

Moreover, just this Wednesday, Lee won the endorsement of California newspapers under the Mcclatchy umbrella, and despite not having the financial backing that Schiff and Porter have, Lee has a not-insignificant chance of sneaking into second place in deep-blue California.

To that point, Lee has shown herself to be a standout on one hot-button topic where the candidates have diverged: The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. While Schiff has fully lined up behind President Biden’s opposition to a ceasefire, and Porter has only recently made a subtle shift to support a “bilateral ceasefire,” Lee began her calls for a ceasefire on October 8th, before Israel had even begun its ground operation in Gaza, and has been a vocal op