The Riverside Press-Enterprise
Ukrainian creative use of weapons has promise, risk
U.S. officials say Ukraine should continue to develop innovative ways to strike at Russian forces as the war approaches its third year. But Ukraine’s use of a Patriot missile to take down a plane last month is an example of how novel battlefield tactics can be fraught with peril as well as promise.
Unbeknown to Ukraine’s military, the Russian aircraft it targeted may have been carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, according to U.S. officials.
The Patriot is a defensive system, usually used to protect a location and not to shoot down planes. A European partner provided the Patriot interceptor that hit the Russian Ilyushin-76 cargo plane Jan. 24, according to American officials briefed on the incident.
Russian officials immediately claimed the aircraft was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, who were to be exchanged for Russian service members.
Publicly, American officials will not comment on what brought down the plane, though officials who spoke privately on the condition of anonymity said the reports of a Patriot missile being used were accurate.
The question of who was on the plane is less clear. American officials have not confirmed the identities of the passengers, but they said it appeared probable that at least some of them were Ukrainian prisoners. U.S. and Ukrainian officials say Russia may have overstated the number of deaths.
If there were prisoners on the plane, as appears
likely, American officials said the loss of life was regrettable.
Ukraine seems to have acted based on legitimate but flawed intelligence. The plane had previously been used to transport missiles, making it a highvalue target for Ukraine, according to Western officials briefed on the intelligence.
While the Patriot was fired from Ukraine, the cargo plane went down in Russia. Some American officials say they have encouraged Ukraine to strike far behind the front lines, but only in Ukrainian territory, mindful of the risk of escalation if U.s.-made equipment is used in attacks on Russian territory.
Nevertheless, U.S. officials have not criticized Ukraine for using the Patriot system to target Russian aircraft in general. Instead, they have said this is the kind of innovation Ukraine will need to embrace.
Last month, American military planners met with Ukrainian counterparts in Wiesbaden, Germany, to discuss the new tactics that might help change the dynamics of the war, which
has been locked in a stalemate for the past year.
One question is whether operations with Patriots are sustainable, especially if Congress cuts off further military aid to Ukraine. The Congressional Research Service estimates that each interceptor costs $4 million.
The Patriot was originally designed to hit aircraft but was reengineered after the Gulf War to be primarily used to strike tactical ballistic missiles, as those weapons grew in prevalence and importance on the battlefield.
Ukrainians have taken the Patriot back to its origins as an anti-aircraft weapon. In January, believing the Russian cargo plane to be loaded with missiles, the Ukrainians set an ambush for it. The tactics, U.S. officials said, are creative but not revolutionary. Ukrainian officials first devised the plan to use the Patriots against aircraft in the spring, in part to try to slow Russia’s aerial bombardment. On May 13, the Ukrainians sneaked a Patriot launcher to an area near the Russian border and took down five aircraft.