The Riverside Press-Enterprise
Wildfire smoke will worsen, new study shows
More than 125 million Americans will be exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution by the middle of the century, largely because of increased smoke from wildfires, according to estimates released Monday.
Yet there are few good ways to protect communities, experts said. The United States has gotten better at coping with other climate perils, like floods, hurricanes and even wildfires themselves. Smoke is different: It’s more challenging to anticipate, to get people to take seriously and to keep out of people’s homes.
“With wildfire smoke in particular, we are not going to adapt our way out of the problem,” said Brian G. Henning, director of the Institute for Climate, Water and the Environment at Gonzaga University in Spokane, Washington. “It’s really hard to address.”
In the 1950s, U.S. air pollution began to steadily improve, largely because of increased regulation, according to the First Street Foundation, the research group that released the report. Then, starting around 2016, the trajectory reversed.
That shift can be seen in the Air Quality Index, which measures the concentration of tiny particles in the air, which can be absorbed through the lungs and into the bloodstream, as well as ozone, another harmful pollutant. For almost
a decade, average air-quality readings have been getting worse.
Two main causes explain that shift, according to First Street, both tied to climate change. First, more extreme heat has increased the levels of ozone in the air. Second, and more consequential: An increase in heat and drought has made wildfires worse, causing more smoke to reach more of the United States.
That can bring severe health dangers.
Inhaling the tiny particles in wildfire smoke is associated with strokes, heart disease, respiratory disease, lung cancer and early
death, according to Susan Anenberg, director of the Climate and Health Institute at George Washington University. “The higher the pollution level and the longer the duration of exposure,” she said, “the more risk there is.”
`Staggering' numbers
That pollution level is expected to get significantly worse.
First Street projected changes in air pollution, based on models that predict extreme heat and wildfires. The group estimated that by 2054, more than 125 million Americans each year will be exposed to at least one day of “red” air quality, the level that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency describes as unhealthy. That’s a 50% jump over this year.
Eleven million Americans are expected to face at least one day that reaches purple on the index, which the EPA characterizes as “very unhealthy.” The highest risk level, maroon, is what the EPA calls “hazardous,” and according to First Street’s projections, almost 2 million Americans will be exposed to at least one such day by 2054.
“Parts of the country are set to see months’ worth of unhealthy air quality days,” said Jeremy R. Porter, head of climate implications at First Street and the report’s lead author. “That statistic is staggering, and is going to slowly make some parts of the country relatively unlivable.”
By 2054, New York City is projected to see eight days a year when the Air Quality Index is orange or worse, meaning the air is unhealthy for at least some sensitive groups. That’s up from six days this year.
Los Angeles County, the nation’s most populous, is projected to hit 54 days that are orange or worse, compared with 47 this year.
The worst effects will be in the Central Valley in California. Fresno County and Tulare County could each face 90 days a year of unhealthy air, the study found. Air pollution in Fresno County is projected to reach “hazardous” levels for three weeks a year.