Tough year for top sires in Grade 1s

With most stud fees for 2019 having been announced, it’s clear that there will once again be eight veteran U.S. stallions standing for at least $100,000 – not counting recent Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify, who have yet to have horses race.

The declines in the fees for Tapit (from $300k to $225k) and Medaglia d’Oro (from $250k to $200k) leave War Front ($250k) as this country’s most expensive sire. The one change among the eight six-figure sires has Quality Road (up to $150k from $70k) replacing Speightstown (down to $80k from $100k). The remaining four are Curlin (up to $175k from $150k), Into Mischief (up to $150k from $100k), Uncle Mo ($125k) and Pioneerof the Nile ($110k).

This year’s eight six-figure stallions have played a surprisingly minor role on the track, at least when it comes to the most important races. Incredibly, sons and daughters of the eight popular sires have won only five of the 97 Grade 1 races contested to date. With only nine Grade 1s left on the schedule, Medaglia d’Oro, War Front, Pioneerof the Nile and Speightstown have yet to sire a single U.S. Grade 1 winner in 2018. [Note: By this time last year, progeny of the eight sires had won 21 Grade 1s.]

The same eight stallions caused barely a ripple at the recent Breeders’ Cup. Anonymity, a daughter of Tapit who finished third in the Filly & Mare Sprint, was the only one of the group’s 15 starters to hit the board.

Of course, even the most successful stallions have off years, as far as their impact in the biggest races is concerned. Medaglia d’Oro, for example, has been shut out so far this year but racked up a remarkable 10 Grade 1 victories in 2017. Tapit and Curlin have also been reliable sires of Grade 1 winners throughout most of their careers.

Other members of the Elite Eight, however, have thus far failed to put together the kind of record one would expect from a stallion with a six-figure stud fee. Into Mischief scores well in several indices – notably in percentage of 2-year-old winners – but has sired just three Grade 1 winners in seven crops to race. His short average-winning-distance of 6.62 furlongs marks him primarily as a sire of sprinter/miler types. Only three of Into Mischief’s progeny have won a graded stakes (at any level) at nine furlongs on dirt.

Pioneerof the Nile got off to a tremendous start at stud by siring two juvenile champions (American Pharoah and Classic Empire) in his first four crops. Production has fallen off considerably since, though, with just two graded wins in 2017 and one in 2018. Pioneerof the Nile ranked 42nd on last year’s general sire list and is currently 40th this year.

War Front owes his status as North America’s most expensive stallion to his continued popularity with mostly international buyers at high-end auctions. On the track, War Front’s influence has probably been greater in Europe than in North America, although he has not ranked among the top sires on either continent. War Front’s four U.S. graded wins this year have all been at the Grade 2 or Grade 3 level. His progeny recorded just two group wins (both Group 1s) this year in England, Ireland and France. Full field set for Red Smith With 16 entries, including six also-eligibles (three of them MTOs), the $200,000 Red Smith Handicap (G3) should have no trouble filling the starting gate for its 57th running on Saturday. At a mile and three-eighths, the Red Smith is the last long-distance turf stakes for male horses on the NYRA calendar.

In what is shaping up to be an excellent betting race, there are four horses pegged at between 5-2

and 5-1 on the morning line. The favorite is Zulu Alpha, a 5-year-old Street Cry gelding who has won his last two starts, including the 1½-mile Sycamore Stakes (G3) at Keeneland last out.

The New York-bred Call Provision is next at 7-2. The Lemon Drop Kid gelding, runner-up in last year’s Red Smith, won an A/OC at the distance three starts back at Saratoga. Inspector Lynley (9-2), a two-time Grade 3 winner, was a good third behind Blacktype and Grade 1 winner Hi Happy in the Knickerbocker Stakes on Oct. 8. Bigger Picture (5-1) won this race in 2016 and has hit the board in Grade 3s in his last two outings.