How might having the NFL’s toughest schedule impact the Patriots in free agency?
With or without Tom Brady, the 2020 season won’t be an easy one for the Patriots. That’s going to be the case for Bill Belichick’s outfit, even with the benefit of playing in the AFC East.
Based on their opponents’ records in 2019, the Patriots have the NFL’s toughest schedule. Collectively, their opponents had a .537 winning percentage in 2019.
With the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs, the championship runner-up 49ers, and five other playoff teams including the Ravens, Seahawks, Texans and Bills among them, it’s going to be a difficult schedule to navigate.
With the doors to free agency still scheduled to swing open Wednesday — assuming the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t alter that at the last minute — it will be interesting to see how much the schedule determines or dictates the players Bill Belichick targets, beyond some obvious needs.
How does that translate exactly?
Just with those teams
alone, the Patriots will have to be at the top of their game defending mobile quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray), as well as strong running games (49ers, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Texans, Seahawks). Those six teams finished in the top 10 in rushing last season, with the 49ers, Ravens and Bills representing the top three.
The Patriots didn’t exactly fare well against mobile quarterbacks last season, or teams with top rushing attacks.
Losses to the Ravens, Texans and Chiefs illustrate the point. With several more of those offenses on the schedule in 2020, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Patriots beef up their defensive line, and add to their stash of versatile linebackers, especially if free agents Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins are lost. Defensive tackle Danny Shelton is also in the free agent mix.
So focusing on fortifying the defensive front seven might take greater precedence over reloading on offense. Or will it? Here’s another way to look at it. The Patriots are scheduled to face five of the top-scoring offenses (Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, Seahawks, Rams) from last season.
The 2019 Patriots had the top-ranked defense in the league. Their offense, however, could not keep up or outscore the best opposing offenses last year (Ravens, Chiefs, Titans, Texans).
So given the trend last year, with more top offensive units on tap, Belichick might prioritize improving his offense.
At least, that’s how SiriusXM NFL analyst Solomon Wilcots views the Patriots’ situation.
“Looking at just the games with the Chiefs the last two years, it told you that you can’t put enough defense out there,” said Wilcots. “They’re going to get their points, so you better be able to match them. If you hold a team like that to 25, you better be able to score 25.”
Last year, the Patriots held the defending Super Bowl champs to 23 points — and lost, scoring just 16.
“They had great defense. You’re not going to get any better than what they had last year,” Wilcots went on. “But guess what? They couldn’t score. They weren’t explosive. They couldn’t come-from-behind to win. If they got behind, they were dead in the water.”
That means tight end and wide receiver should be the priorities for the Patriots. Offense first, then defense. That might be the best way to try and combat a schedule loaded with offensive juggernauts.
While the Pats are going to take a hit on defense losing key free agents, that shouldn’t cripple the unit, especially with a secondary that continues to be top-notch.
That being said, it looks like Van Noy is sure to be gone. In an interview with Willie McGinest on the NFL Network’s “All Access,” Thursday, the linebacker made it sound like he was headed to the highest bidder. That’s not likely to be the Patriots.
“My mindset is easy. My mindset is not going to change as a player. I just want to be the best player I can be, and help the team as best as possible,” Van Noy told McGinest, “but it’s going to change a little bit ‘cuz dollars are going to start talking, and I want to take care of my family.”
Collins tweeted he was switching agents. The move is likely geared toward a better result in free agency. Shelton did the same, changing to Drew Rosenhaus.
Belichick certainly won’t ignore improving the front seven. It’ll be in the mix behind the offense.
In 2014, facing a murderer’s row of quarterbacks with great receiving units, the Patriots signed Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to help thwart those offenses. Ditto in 2017, when the Pats had to tackle teams loaded with high-end receivers, be it Houston, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, the L.A. Chargers, Pittsburgh and Denver. That’s when
Stephon Gilmore arrived. That’s when the Patriots jumped out of the gate, and threw enough money (5 years, $65 million, $31 million guaranteed) at the former Bills corner to make sure they landed him.
The difference in those years was the Patriots had Tom Brady closer to being full-throttle. He hadn’t yet shown any signs of age, and could carry the offense. They also had Rob Gronkowski and a younger Julian Edelman. For 2020, they’ll either have a 43-yearold Brady, or someone else leading the offense.
So we’ll see how the Patriots address filling out their roster, with the schedule in mind.
Of course, the NFL fans will be paying close attention to the Brady situation during the legal tampering period on Monday and Tuesday, prior to the doors opening on Wednesday for free agency. Fans in New England and beyond want to know where Brady ends up.
Former Patriots great Ty Law will be in town this week to promote his new venture. Along with his Hall of Fame career, and the trampoline parks he’s opened across the country, he’s decided to tackle a completely different undertaking. It’s V-One Vodka. After he was elected to the Hall last year, Valley Vodka Inc., sent him 24 bottles of their award-winning vodka to congratulate him, and commemorate the number he wore for the Patriots.
When he met with Paul Kozub, the creator of Valley Vodka to thank him for the gift, it led to his partnership with the company.
“I wanted to shake his hand, and thank him, the next thing you know, we sat at my house from one in the afternoon, to seven, just drinking vodka and having a good time talking. So it was really organic how it happened,” said Law, when reached by phone Wednesday. “Nothing was ever intended for me to be business partners, but it just grew out of that … we just kind of connected, we just clicked.”