Coronavirus will infect our election system

It’s hard to focus on right now, but this November we’re going to have a presidential election that may be the most important in our lifetimes. How, exactly? All we can say for certain, in this plague year, is that we won’t do it the way we expected. The election will take place in the shadow of a pandemic that has affected every state in the union, killed more than 1,000 Americans thus far and dramatically changed how we live and work. We’re going to have to make this up as we go along.

Just three weeks ago, after the Super Tuesday primaries, it looked as if we would know by now who the Democratic challenger to President Trump will be. Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in pledged delegates over Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., was on track to become mathematically insurmountable, and Sanders would almost surely have had to suspend or end his campaign. It was supposed to be all over but the shouting.

But because of COVID-19, potentially decisive primaries in Ohio, Georgia and other states have been postponed. At this point, with most Americans asked or ordered to practice social distancing, it is unclear when it will be possible to resume the primary process — or how that can be done safely.

So the Democratic race is in suspended animation. Biden looks like the certain nominee, but this status has not been made official — and Sanders has not dropped out. There was supposed to be another debate between the two candidates in April, but the Democratic National Committee has not yet scheduled it.

Sanders has said he is ready and willing to participate; Biden, perhaps understandably, has said that “I think we’ve had enough debates.”

The primaries, when they resume, will probably look and feel different. There will likely be much more of an emphasis on mail-in voting, which will make it hard or impossible for officials to report results on the night of the primary. That would mean no victory or concession speeches, which is just as well, since those ritualistic appearances would seem pointless in the absence of wildly elated or sorely disappointed crowds.

And crowds of any kind, of course, are at this point out of the question.

If Sanders dropped out, all of the above would be academic — but only for the presidential race. State parties still need to choose candidates for important down-ballot contests, including Senate and House races. Somehow, the primaries have to be held.

What about the party conventions? As of now, the Democratic Party is planning to hold its convention July 13-16 in Milwaukee and the Republican Party intends to gather Aug. 24-27 in Charlotte. That’s the idea, at least — and perhaps by summer it will be safe to return to politics as usual. But what if it isn’t?

Anyone who has been on the crowded, bustling floor of a major-party convention knows that even the most diabolical Bond villain could hardly design a more perfect environment to guarantee the spread of a dangerous pathogen. Attendees come from around the country and spend four days in the closest proximity, sitting cheek by jowl, squeezing past one another, glad-handing with other delegations, cheering and chanting and otherwise expelling whatever happens to be lurking in their respiratory tracts.

Normally, that’s not a serious problem — some people might go home with colds that they end up passing on to family and friends. But this year? Seriously?

And then sprint to November is supposed to begin. In a bestcase scenario, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 may turn out to be seasonal, like influenza, and new infections could naturally decline during warm-weather months. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Wednesday he believes this may be the case. That means we might get a respite.

But it also means, Fauci said, that we should prepare for a second wave of infection and transmission when the weather again turns cold.

According to the Centers for Disease Control, flu season usually begins in October. If COVID-19 follows that schedule, that second wave would begin washing over the nation just before Election Day.

We have to start imagining a presidential campaign without campaigning. Will there be rallies? Will “pressing the flesh” seem a dangerous bygone practice? Will the battle take place exclusively on television and online?

It will be challenging to hold a legitimate national election in the shadow of COVID-19. The time to start planning how to do this is now.