Breeders’ Cup Big Four set for Saturday
The Breeders’ Cup Big Four are the Classic, the Distaff, the Mile, and the Filly and Mare Turf. All races are set for Saturday.
With a dozen wins in 36 years, 3-year-olds have done pretty well in the Classic since the Breeders’ Cup’s inception in 1984. They included three straight in recent years, when the Bob Baffert-conditioned Bayern, American Pharoah and Arrogate streaked to Classic victories between 2014 and 2016.
The 2020 race shapes up as a battle between generations, as the two best 3-year-olds (classic winners Tiz the Law and Authentic) take on a formidable older-horse contingent led by Improbable, Maximum Security and Tom’s d’Etat. Tiz the Law and Authentic have yet to face their elders, and both are coming off runner-up finishes, respectively, in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Both sophomores have had tremendous years, however, and a vic
tory by either today would not be a huge surprise.
Improbable, who ran away from Maximum Security in his 4½-length triumph in the Awesome Again Stakes, is the hot horse in the 10-horse field, and a deserving morning-line favorite at 5-2. Tom’s d’Etat (6-1), unraced since a troubled third in the Whitney on Aug. 1, may be overlooked in this spot. The 7-year-old had won four consecutive races prior to the Whitney, and as a horse who does his best running late, he should have plenty of pace to close into.
A month or so ago, the Distaff looked as though it could field as many as a half-dozen legitimate contenders. In the weeks since, for various reasons, that number has been reduced, leaving Monomoy Girl (8-5) and Swiss Skydiver (2-1) as the two overwhelming favorites. Horologist (8-1) is the only other entrant with single-digit odds.
Monomoy Girl, who was away from the races for 18 months, has had little trouble recapturing her championship 2018 form, reeling off three decisive victories this year. A win today would make her the fourth horse to win two editions of the Distaff, following Bayakoa, Royal Delta and Beholder. Swiss Skydiver is a worthy opponent and is coming off her most impressive performance of the year in becoming the sixth filly to win the Preakness.
With open-lengths wins in the Beldame and Molly Pitcher, Horologist is having her best year at four. Beaten horses in the Beldame included fellow Distaff entrants Dunbar Road and Point of Honor.
Prior to his recent start in the Shadwell Mile, Ivar was still looking for his first U.S. graded win. The Brazilian-bred won that G1 race by a length, and he comes into the Mile as the 4-1 morning-line favorite in a full field of 14.
Ivar’s opponents include the Chad Browntrained champion mare Uni (5-1), last year’s Mile winner. The 6-year-old daughter of More Than Ready, defeated as the favorite in the Just a Game and Fourstardave, flashed her old form while rallying to win Keeneland’s First Lady Stakes on Oct. 3. Brown’s other starters, Raging Bull and Digital Age, are both pegged at 8-1. Factor This, a winner of five of his last six starts, is also 8-1.
The top European threat appears to be Kameko (6-1). The US-bred son of Kitten’s Joy, who upset this year’s 2000 Guineas at 10-1 and then finished fourth in the Epsom Derby, runs back off a G2 win at a mile at Newmarket on Sept. 25.
A full field of 14 is also expected for the 9½-furlong Filly & Mare Turf, four of which are trained by Chad Brown. The four are led by Rushing Fall, the 5-2 morning-line choice who will be vying for her eleventh gradedstakes victory. For the first time, she’ll be competing at a distance longer than nine furlongs. Brown also saddles My Sister Nat (121), Nay Lady Nay (20-1) and 2018 champion turf mare Sistercharlie (6-1), who won this race in 2018 and was third last year. The 6-year-old has finished third in both of her 2020 starts.
Mean Mary (7-2) had her four-race winning streak ended when she was beaten a neck by Rushing Fall in the Diana. Today’s added distance should benefit the 4-yearold Scat Daddy filly, who has won graded races this year at 10, 11 and 12 furlongs.
Mucho Unusual and Lady Prancelot, both G1 winners in California, are dismissed at 30-1. Top Euros include Audarya (121) and the Aidan O’Brienconditioned Peaceful (121).